A strong team overall that nearly shocked the college football world in the ACC title game against Clemson, the Virginia Tech Hokies will face-off against the Arkansas Razorbacks in the Belk Bowl. Virginia Tech is flying high while Arkansas will try and pick itself up after seeing a win against Missouri slip away at the end of the regular season thank to 21 unanswered points.
Watch this Belk Bowl matchup live on Thursday, December 29, 2016, at 5:30 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Arkansas +7
Virginia Tech -7
Over/Under 61.5
Odds Analysis
The Hokies will be giving a touchdown in their bowl game against the Razorbacks, but the trends still favor them given their 9-4 record and over-.500 mark ATS this season.
Virginia Tech managed to cover the spread in each of their last three games, including keeping the No. 2 ranked Clemson Tigers within a score, dropping the game 42-35 in the ACC Championship bout.
Arkansas, on the other hand, has failed to cover the spread in two of its last three games and on the year as the underdog has gone a mere 2-4 ATS.
Matchup to Watch
The Arkansas defensive front hasn’t fared all that well against the run this year. The Razorbacks are giving up 209.3 rushing yards per game to rank No. 93 in the nation.
The Hokies boast a balanced offensive attack and while the Hogs should be able to defend the pass, it’ll be worth watching how the squad fairs against the run given Jarod Evans is a strong runner. He’s rushed for a team high 759 yards and 10 touchdowns on top of his 3,309 passing yards and 27 passing touchdowns.
Not only does Evans extend drives with his legs, he extends plays, too. He can scramble out of the pocket. The Arkansas front seven will need to find a way to get to him and collapse the pocket quick enough to put sufficient pressure on him both on the ground and in the air.
Of course, on the ground, it isn’t just Evans. In the Clemson game, he ran for two scores, but so did Travon McMillian.
Evans showed what he was made of against the Tigers, leading three straight scoring drives late and nearly finishing off another against a very good Clemson defense.
Key Stat
For a team that’s got as much talent as it does, the Razorbacks have been inconsistent. Their offense has been come and go and their defense isn’t nearly as lockdown as the personnel would indicate.
While we’ve seen flashes of brilliance from this team, such as in the win over Florida, we’ve seen them fall flat way too often as well, particularly on defense.
This defense should be better than it is. They’re allowing 30.8 PPG and 428.7 yards per game largely because they struggle to get off the field.
The Razorbacks are amongst the worst teams in college football at coming up with a big third down stop. They’re allowing the opposition to convert on third downs at a .447 clip, ranking No. 107. By comparison, the Virginia Tech defense ranks fourth in the sport at .284. That’s a major difference. One that’s bound to rear its head in the Belk Bowl considering these offenses are pretty much the same in this category converting third downs at 42-percent clip.
Free ATS Pick
Look for the lack of big third down stops to be the difference in this game with Evans handling the Hogs’ defense both in the air and on the ground to get key first downs to extend drives.
Virginia Tech’s defense is better than Arkansas’s and with Evan being a dual-threat quarter back, they edge out the Razorbacks on the offensive side of the ball as well.
The only real concern here would be the Hokies experiencing a bit of a hangover after such a good showing in the conference title game. Given the layoff and time to prepare, however, that doesn’t seem likely. Justin Fuente has this team back amongst the cream of the crop in the ACC and getting the squad motivated for a bowl game shouldn’t be all that difficult.
Look for the offenses to lead the way in this game. Take the over and bank on the Hokies to cover the spread, pushing this to a two score game with Arkansas more or less helpless on the defensive end of the field.
College Football Odds: Virginia Tech 39, Arkansas 26
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
