Betting Analysis: College Football Playoff National Championship, Alabama vs. Clemson

National-Championship-bm

Last year’s national title game was so good that the best thing to do this season was to play it again. No one is surprised that the Alabama Crimson Tide are here. Alabama has been the favorite to win the national title in most years this decade with the greatest coach in college football history manning the sidelines. The Clemson Tigers making it back here is another story. Many called for Florida State or perhaps Louisville to win the ACC, but Dabo Swinney and the Tigers persevered and find themselves with another chance to knock off the kings of college football.

Don't miss the College Football Playoff National Championship from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, January 9, 2017. Catch every moment of the game live on ESPN.

CFP National Championship Odds at BookMaker.eu
Alabama -6.5
Clemson +6.5
Over/Under 51.5

Odds Analysis

Before the semi-final games last week, it was expected that Alabama would be a double-digit favorite. However, no one expected the Crimson Tide offense to struggle as much as it did against Washington, and that led to the line opening up at a mere six points.

Few expected Clemson to play as well as it did against Ohio State as well. The Tigers absolutely dominated the Buckeyes in all phases of the game on the way to a 31-0 win and that surprising defensive effort has led some to believe that they can stop Alabama’s offense in the same manner.

The spread for this game opened at 6 and is in between 6.5 and 7 depending on where you look. However, don’t be surprised if this line creeps down closer to kick-off with questions swirling about Steve Sarkisian taking over the play calling duty from Lane Kiffin.

Bowl Game History

This is the third national championship in the College Football Playoff era and Alabama is looking to become the first team ever to win two titles in this format. For the first time ever, Tampa is hosting the game, and that means almost perfect weather for this one.

Team and Coaching Bowl Game History

Clemson has covered in each of its three CFP games thus far, with outright wins over Ohio State and Oklahoma as an underdog. The Tigers have won five of their last six bowl games with the one exception being the loss to Alabama.

Alabama has been great outside of the Sugar Bowl under Nick Saban. Saban is 8-3 in bowl games during his tenure in Tuscaloosa, but is 7-0 outside of New Orleans. Alabama is 4-0 SU and 3-1 in national title games and outside of the game against Clemson last year, the lowest margin of victory was 16 points.

Recent Games of Note

When these teams met last year, DeShaun Watson put on a show and Alabama’s defense was extremely hard pressed to stop him. Watson torched the Crimson Tide for 405 yards through the air and Nick Saban’s defense was pushed to the limit by Clemson’s spread attack all game long. Clemson racked up 31 first downs and 550 total yards on this defense and you can bet that Saban spent all offseason scheming for how to stop it.

Last year, it was the offense that powered Alabama to a victory, particularly OJ Howard and Derrick Henry. Henry was a workhorse on the ground for the Crimson Tide, grinding out 158 yards and three touchdowns on 36 carries and iced the game for Alabama late with his hard-nosed running.

Meanwhile, Howard tore up Clemson’s back seven for his best game of the season. The tight end always had the potential to take over a game, but his 203 yards and two touchdowns on the biggest stage of the season garnered him love all offseason long. He is back this season and Clemson DC Brent Venables has to come up with a plan to keep his numbers in check this time.

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