For the Western Michigan Broncos, a Cotton Bowl matchup against the Wisconsin Badgers is quite the honor, but for Wisconsin, this is more of a consolation prize after they dropped the Big Ten title game to Penn State. Now, the Badgers are in a must-win situation to save face as they take on a MAC team, albeit an undefeated one with a bit of Big Ten success in its back pocket.
Don't miss the Cotton Bowl from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas at 1 p.m. ET on Monday, January 2, 2016. Catch every moment of the game live on ESPN.
Cotton Bowl Odds at BookMaker.eu
Wisconsin -7.5
Western Michigan +7.5
Over/Under 53.5
Odds Analysis
Amazingly, neither the spread nor the total has seen much movement since BookMaker released the odds last week, but look for the spread to rise over the next couple weeks before kickoff. Yes, Western Michigan is undefeated, but they’re dynamite offense will be tested in a way it’s never been tested before against Wisconsin.
Look for T.J. Watt to put tons of pressure on Zack Terrell. While Terrell can move a bit under center and has a 32-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio, he’s going against a defense that’s picked the quarterback 21 times while giving up just 12 touchdown passes all season long.
That could also serve to drive down the point total. Penn State was able to solve the Wisconsin defense, but can Western Michigan duplicate that?
As for the spread, the Badgers are 9-3-1 ATS this year, even after failing to cover in their last two games. The Broncos, on the other hand, are 9-4 ATS, but are just 4-4 ATS since October 8 as the strength of Western Michigan’s offense stopped catching bettors and odds makers off guard.
Bowl Game History
The Cotton Bowl was a College Football Playoff game last year with Alabama cruising to a 38-0 win over Michigan State. That was the fourth straight game the winning team scored at least 38 and the seventh time in the last nine years.
Given the nature of AT&T Stadium and the retractable roof, this game is impervious to poor weather or cold conditions hindering the offense.
Historically, this game had been a SEC and Big 12 bowl game, but the conference tie-ins were dropped a couple years ago. This year, we see a Big Ten team face a mid-major foe out of the MAC.
Team and Coaching Bowl Game History
After a 1-11 season in P.J. Fleck’s first in Kalamazoo, he’s now led the Broncos to three straight bowl games a first in the school’s history. In fact, prior to Fleck, the Broncos had just five bowl appearances ever.
Last year, the Broncos topped Middle Tennessee in the second ever Bahamas Bowl thanks to the offense, 45-31. That was their first Bowl game victory ever. With an even better season under the team’s belt and a prestigious matchup in a New Year’s bowl game this time around, the Broncos have their toughest test ever as they look to build off an undefeated season.
Meanwhile, Paul Chryst’s Badgers duplicated their 10-3 record from his first season with the Badgers. Wisconsin won its bowl game last year, topping USC narrowly 23-21 in the Holiday Bowl. Between his work in Wisconsin and Pittsburgh, Chryst is 2-1 in bowl games. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has now won back-to-back bowl games, but only by a combined five points. Before that, however, the team was 1-6 in their previous seven bowl games.
Since 2003, the Badgers are 7-6 ATS in bowl games while the Broncos are 2-3 ATS in that same period.
Recent Games of Note
The other unbeaten team, aside from Alabama, is this Western Michigan team. Included in all those wins for the Broncos are a couple against Big Ten teams already in Northwestern and Illinois. Granted, those aren’t exactly conference powerhouses, but it at least gives us a point of comparison.
The Broncos played both the Wildcats and Illini early and on the road. The win against Illinois was particularly impressive, beating them by a 34-10 final. Wisconsin took care of both in an even more commanding fashion, beating up on Illinois 48-3 and winning against Northwestern 21-7.
In the end, Wisconsin provides a very physical team from the line of scrimmage and the pass rush led by Watt should cause Western Michigan fits, particularly given their struggles against Ohio who, although the best defense in the MAC, pales in comparison to the physicality of the Badgers.
The Broncos should play hard the whole way and should show that they can play with the big boys, but they’re overmatch given their level of competition the rest of the season. Yes, Wisconsin will be disappointed, but they’ll be motivated to win a game they’re expected to win.
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