Top NFL prospects are abound in the Fiesta Bowl as the Ohio State Buckeyes and Clemson Tigers battle it out on the gridiron for the chance to advance to the National Championship Game and a likely battle with Alabama, unless Washington can record its own upset. With so much on the line for both teams and many of their players, look for an all-out, physical battle with both teams boasting top-15 units on both sides of the field.
Don't miss the Fiesta Bowl from University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 31, 2016. Catch every moment of the game live on ESPN.
Fiesta Bowl Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ohio State -3.5
Clemson +3.5
Over/Under 59.5
Odds Analysis
The total has trickled downward since opening at 61.5, but the spread has stayed stagnant as the Buckeyes remain favorites by 3.5-points in what should be the closer of the College Football Playoff match-ups.
Even after the couple point drop in the total, the total still remains rather elevated, at least compared to where the total typical sits for an Ohio State game. The reason, of course, is the Clemson offense, but the Tigers’ defense is also amongst the best in the country. Still, the over has paid out in four straight Clemson games and seven of their last nine, including in two games with a total over 60.
Meanwhile, the over is 6-6 in Ohio State games this year, but is 3-1 in their last four games, including matchups with defensive elites like Michigan and Nebraska.
As for the spread, the Buckeyes have only covered in two of their last eight games, but the Tigers haven’t been much better, covering in two of their last seven.
Bowl Game History
This is Ohio State’s second straight appearance in the Fiesta Bowl, beating Notre Dame 44-28 last year as the No. 7 team. That game was a rematch of the 2006 Fiesta Bowl that also resulted in a Buckeye victory over the Irish.
This will be Ohio State’s sixth Fiesta Bowl appearance since 2003 with the Buckeyes going 4-1 in the first five. The only loss came in 2009 against the then No. 3 ranked Texas. Even though the Buckeyes dropped that game, they still covered the spread, keeping Ohio State 5-0 ATS since the 2002 Fiesta Bowl win against Miami.
More generally, the underdog has covered the spread in seven of the last ten Fiesta Bowls, but one of the three exceptions did come last year with Ohio State covering.
Team and Coaching Bowl Game History
The Buckeyes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight bowl games. Under Urban Meyer, Ohio State is 3-1 ATS in bowl games, including a Fiesta Bowl win and a national championship. They’re looking to put themselves in position for a second one of both in this showdown.
Dabo Swinney has let the Tigers to a 5-4 bowl record. They stayed close with Alabama last year in the National Championship game, but ultimately lost 45-40, snapping a four game bowl winning streak that included wins of greater than 20-points in back-to-back bowl matchups with Oklahoma.
Recent Games of Note
Clemson’s Deshaun Watson came in second in the Heisman Trophy voting, but Ohio State provides a completely different test for the talented quarterback than anything he faced in the ACC.
Sure, the Atlantic Coast has a few strong defenses in Florida State, Louisville and Virginia Tech, but the Buckeyes defense ranked, allowing just 14.2 PPG and providing a talented front seven and stout secondary is a whole different animal in itself.
Against FSU, Louisville and Virginia Tech, the Tigers scored 37, 42 and 42 respectively with Watson combining for 10 touchdowns though he did throw six of his 15 interceptions in those three games as well.
With a serviceable running game, the offense goes as Watson goes and fortunately for Clemson, even though the secondary is great, having nabbed 19 interceptions, Watson is coming into the game having thrown nine touchdowns in his last two games.
The Clemson corps of receivers were on display in the ACC title game against Virginia Tech. Between Mike Williams and Artavis Scott, the Ohio State corners will be busy, but Marshon Lattimore and Gareon Conley are elite. Meanwhile, Malik Hooker will be hanging out at safety to add extra coverage which is helpful considering Jordan Laggett is a mismatch at tight end for nearly any defensive end and has shown that all season.
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