While not a College Football Playoff contest this time around, the Orange Bowl still features an intriguing matchup for very strong teams with the Florida State Seminoles set to take on the Michigan Wolverines, both ranked amongst the top dozen teams in the country. Defense will be the name of the game in a showdown that will feature good hard-nose football between two storied programs.
Don't miss the Capital One Orange Bowl from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, December 30, 2016. Catch every moment of the game live on ESPN.
Orange Bowl Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michigan -7
Florida State +7
Over/Under 53
Odds Analysis
Total started at 58 before dropping five points as bettors have shown a lack of confidence in either offense given the Wolverines’ top ranked pass defense and FSU’s reliance on a freshman QB in Deondre Francois who looked pedestrian in his last game against a good Florida defense. While the team did score 31 and win in commanding fashion, Francois himself passed for just 138 yards while surrendering a pick.
Interestingly, however, Michigan’s defensive reputation has often caused bettors to over compensate for the defensive prowess. As a result, the over has actually paid out in 16 of the Wolverines’ last 20 games. That said, two of those four under games did come in the Wolverines’ last three games.
With a total in the upper-50s, the under was a great play particularly with FSU also boasting a top-25 defense, but with the total now in the low-50s, be a bit more cautious, but the under could still be a great play even with over’s dominance in Michigan contests. The last two times a Michigan game went under the total was less than the current 53-points. The under is also 6-2 in FSU’s last eight games.
As for the spread, the Seminoles are 2-1 when they were underdogs this year and have covered the spread in three straight contests. Michigan was able to cover the spread in its last game, but is just 2-4 ATS in its last six.
Bowl Game History
Save for a brief return to its namesake stadium in 1999 as a result of a scheduling conflict with the Miami Dolphins, the Orange Bowl has been played at Hard Rock Stadium now since 1996. The game itself, however, is the second oldest bowl game in the nation alongside the Sugar Bowl, second only to the Rose Bowl.
As one of the nation’s most prominent bowl games, the Orange Bowl is one of the College Football Playoff bowl games, though that is obviously not the case this season. Instead, the game will feature an ACC team in Florida State like it has dating back to 1999 and a Big Ten team in Michigan as it often does.
This will be the Seminoles fifth Orange Bowl appearance since 1999. One would think being in their home state would be a huge edge for FSU, but the team lost the first three of those games before toppled Northern Illinois 31-10 in 2013 for the team’s first Orange Bowl win since 1996. Last year, this game was part of the College Football Playoffs and saw top-ranked Clemson easy beat Oklahoma 37-17.
With Michigan sitting at No. 6, the Wolverines will represent the highest seeded team in a non-College Football Playoff Orange Bowl since No. 5 Sanford beat Virginia Tech in 2011.
Team and Coaching Bowl Game History
This is a prestigious bowl game for Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines. He’s helped build the program back to relevance and will lead his team into its first Orange Bowl appearance since 1999.
Last year, the Wolverines dominated a different Florida program, beating the Gators 41-7 in a different Florida bowl: the Citrus Bowl. This matchup marks an upgrade, but such a showing last year after failing to secure a bowl the previous year is a nice boost to the confidence.
As for the Seminoles, they’ve lost back-to-back bowl games after the Jimbo Fisher era started out so great. The transition from Bobby Bowden to Fisher had yielded six straight bowl victories while Fisher built added success culminating in a National Championship thanks to a win over Auburn in January 2013.
Since that time, however, FSU hasn’t been nearly the same in the postseason, losing to Oregon in the Rose Bowl of the College Football Playoffs the following year and then falling in the Peach Bowl last year to Houston.
Recent Games of Note
It’s been a long time since these two teams last faced off, dating back before any of the players were even born in 1991. There also isn’t a whole lot of schedule crossover between these two teams to give us much of an indication of what to expect as these teams meet.
Florida State’s offense is what sets it apart from the Wolverines who have the clear upper hand on the defensive end of the gridiron.
The Seminoles don’t have a defense like the Wolverine’s defense in the ACC and we saw Francois’s numbers drop starkly against the No. 10 ranked Gators defense in the team’s most recent contest. Despite that, the Seminoles still scored 31-points thanks to 6.2 yards per carry on the ground and three turnovers gained by the defense.
Michigan, however, has the better rush defense than Florida and the Wolverines have only allowed 30-points in a game once, against an Ohio State team that’s in the College Football Playoffs and boast a top ten scoring offense.
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