Can an elite Pac-12 offense overcome a dominating SEC defense? That’s what the Peach Bowl boils down to as the Washington Huskies try to do something only Ole Miss and Arkansas has been able to do offensively against the Alabama Crimson Tide. Granted, to accomplish such an upset, the Huskies’ defense will also need to slow an Alabama offense that’s still ranked amongst the best in the sport.
Don't miss the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl from the Georgia Dome in Atlanta at 3 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 31, 2016. Catch every moment of the game live on ESPN.
Peach Bowl Odds at BookMaker.eu
Alabama -15
Washington +15
Over/Under 54
Odds Analysis
The spread being over two touchdowns is quite lofty for a College Football Playoff matchup, but this is Alabama, the team that’s expected to more or less cruise to the National Title. Given the spread opened at a rather high number, it’s interesting that the spread has actually grown since it was released, albeit only slightly.
The Crimson Tide has only had a spread less of 15-points or less four times and have covered the spread three times. The only exception came way back in September.
Washington, meanwhile, has covered the spread in back-to-back games, but is 3-4 ATS in their last seven and has a 7-6 ATS mark this year compared to Alabama’s 9-4 record.
The total for this game opened at 58, but has dropped four points down to 54. That’s a bit of a surprise given that these are two strong offenses, but of course, both teams are ranked amongst the top eight in college football in terms of points allowed per game. The under is 3-0-1 in Washington’s last four games while the under is 4-2 in in Alabama’s last six games. The Tide has also not allowed more than 16-points in any of its last seven games. Washington’s allowed 18 or fewer in three straight contests.
Bowl Game History
Since its inaugural game in 1968, the Peach Bowl has elevated itself into one of the most prestigious bowl games in the nation and is now one of the College Football Playoff contests.
This will be the first time the Peach Bowl has served as a College Football Playoff game and the first time it’s hosted a top-five ranked team.
Last year, Houston topped Florida State in an upset despite the Seminoles’ geographic advantage. The Cougars easily covered the spread in that one and the over paid out. In this bowl, the underdog has covered the spread with more regularity than the favorite, but the total has been shifting from over to under over the last five years. Prior to that, the under had the advantage.
With the Mercedes-Benz Stadium set to open in the next year, this could be the very last Peach Bowl game played in the Georgia Dome.
Team and Coaching Bowl Game History
Alabama’s bowl dominance is that of legend. They’re making winning the National Title look easy, taking the top spot in the sport four times in the sports’ last seven seasons and cruised to the title last season shutting out both Michigan State and Clemson in bowl blowouts; going 38-0 and 45-0 respectively.
In terms of pure wins and losses, the Crimson Tide are 14-7 in bowl games dating back to 1991. Since Nick Saban took over the Tide, Alabama is 7-3 in bowl games.
Washington’s bowl history isn’t as prestigious as the Tide, but the Huskies have been bowl eligible every year since 2010 as Steve Sarkisian did a great job of keeping this team competitive, but Chris Petersen has seemingly been able to accomplish something Sarkisian didn’t in taking this program to the next level.
Under Petersen, the Huskies are 1-1 in bowl games. Prior to coming to Washington, Petersen led the Boise State Broncos to a 5-2 bowl record, making him 6-3 overall.
The Huskies, however, are just 5-10 in their last 15 bowl games.
Recent Games of Note
LSU and Ole Miss are the only teams really able to even hang close to the Crimson Tide all year though Alabama did end up winning by 10-points and covering the spread against the Tigers.
Still, it was the Tigers’ defense that kept them in the game; at least comparatively. Meanwhile, it was the Rebels’ offense that kept them fighting.
While these teams have shown the Alabama offense can be curtailed and the defense can be overcome, no team has shown that both can be handled in the same game and while the Pac-12 is a strong conference, it didn’t provide anything close to the balanced attack that Alabama provides.
Still, this team will at least be going in confident after dominating Washington State and Colorado in back-to-back games. It was the third straight games for the Huskies to score at least 40 and allow fewer than 20.
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