A spot in the College Football Playoff is on the line when Iowa and Michigan State battle in the Big Ten Championship game. The undefeated Hawkeyes cruised through the weaker West Division and avoided the big boys from the East. They’ll get the best of the bunch Saturday in the biggest-ever matchup between the programs.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michigan State Spartans -3
Iowa Hawkeyes +3
Over/Under 52.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Iowa’s perfect record hasn’t translated into success at the betting window and a soft schedule has the Hawkeyes as 3.5-point dogs. Sparty won the last meeting between the teams, 26-14 in 2013 in what Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz called Connor Cook’s “coming out party.”
KEY MISMATCH
Michigan State has an explosive offense led by quarterback Connor Cook, who injured his shoulder late in the season and could not play in the upset win at Ohio State. He returned against Penn State in the regular season finale and was on target, completing 19 of 26 passes for 248 yards with three touchdowns. Cook has completed 194 of 337 passes for 2,730 yards with 24 touchdown passes and just four interceptions for the season. He is one of the most highly-ranked quarterbacks in college football and appears to have an excellent chance to be selected in one of the first two rounds of next year's NFL draft. He has an excellent crew of receivers in Aaron Burbridge, Macgarrett Kings and R.J. Shelton. Burbridge is the home run hitter of the group after catching 75 passes for 1,158 yards and seven touchdowns. Burbridge's best characteristic is his ability to make the clutch catch in traffic. He also excels at picking up yards after the catch. Pass defense has been Iowa’s Achilles heel this season, but cornerback Desmond King could be a disruptive force if targeted.
KEY STAT
18.7 – Iowa’s points per game allowed. The Hawkeyes’ 15th-ranked scoring defense will face its stiffest test against the Spartans, who average 33.4 points per game.
BETTING ANGLE
The Hawkeyes are arguably the biggest surprise of the 2015 season. Iowa stayed perfect with a 28-20 victory at Nebraska as a 2.5-point favorite last week, and despite its glossy 12-0 SU record, Iowa is just 7-5 ATS. Michigan State suffered its only loss of the season at Nebraska four weeks ago, 39-38 as a 3.5-point chalk. But the Spartans have had a huge bounce back, going 3-0 SU and ATS, including a road upset of Ohio State and a regular season-ending 55-16 blowout of Penn State giving 7.5 points at home last Saturday. The championship probably isn’t what most envisioned at the beginning of the season. By winning the weaker West Division, Iowa will have to prevail over the stronger East Division winner to show they belong in the elite final four.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
From the outside looking in, Iowa has been the more consistent team this season, not just because it is the only undefeated team left in the Big Ten but because the Hawkeyes have avoided fewer close calls than Michigan State. But while Iowa's body of work on the season may seem to favor the Hawkeyes, all Michigan State has to do is be the better team on one night. And with the way the Spartans have played the past two weeks, including beating Ohio State on the Buckeyes' home turf, that certainly seems possible. Look for Cook to continue his success against a shaky Iowa secondary. Yes, the Hawkeyes are perfect, but their opponents combined for a 46.2 winning percentage and with seven of their 12 victims finishing under .500. We won’t have a blowout like last year’s championship game, but I do think that the Hawkeyes will be chasing the Spartans for the majority of the game.
Michigan State 35, Iowa 30
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BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the Michigan State Spartans and Iowa Hawkeyes will take place Saturday, December 5, 2015, at 8:17 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium. The contest will be broadcast live on FOX.
