The South Florida Bulls were a depressing loss to Temple away from a shot at the American Athletic Conference title. Instead, the Bulls will have to settle for a season that saw them win a program record 10 games. They’ll look to make it 11 when they take on the South Carolina Gamecocks. USF enters the Birmingham Bowl as sizeable favorites as the aim for their first bowl win under Willie Taggart.
This contest in the Birmingham Bowl will go down Thursday, December 29, 2016, at 2 p.m. ET at Legion Field.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
South Florida -10.5
South Carolina+10.5
Over/Under 62.5
Odds Analysis
Opening as double-digit favorites over the Gamecocks, the Bulls currently sit as 10.5-point favorites with little movement to the spread or total since either opened.
This will be the third straight game with the Bulls favored by double-digits after USF toppled Central Florida 48-31 to cover the spread and close out the regular season.
The Bulls have covered the spread in three of its last four games and is 5-2 ATS when favored by at least 10.
Meanwhile, South Carolina comes into play having failed to cover in back-to-back games. Most recently, Clemson lit them up in a 56-7 loss. This team is 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven as the underdog.
Player to Watch
This game could very well turn into a showcase for one of the game’s best and most underrated players: Quinton Flowers.
Flowers is a pretty well-known name now, but playing in the AAC, he’s still not quite as respected as he probably should be.
The USF QB has been absolutely filthy in the air and on the ground, rushing for a team high 1,425 yards and 15 touchdowns while adding 2,546 yards in the air and 22 passing scores. Meanwhile, he’s completed 61.5-percent of his passes and given up only six interceptions.
Flowers is the true definition of a dual threat back and he’s been very good at utilizing the weapons he has at his disposal. With the ability to make things happen on the ground, move around to extend plays and having a rather strong and accurate throwing arm to boot, he’s exceptionally difficult to defend.
There’s no doubt Muschamp has his group running countless drills and working hard to account for everything Flowers can do on the field, but with such a diverse skill set, it’s impossible to account for every eventuality. There’s just not enough defenders on the field.
The rushing game should tear up South Carolina. After grabbing an early lead, this USF will run early and Flowers isn’t the lone threat in that regard.
Letdown Spot
It’s not like the Gamecocks were supposed to beat Clemson or even keep the game close, but when you’re team is as young as the Gamecocks and you lose by 49-points, it’s hard to imagine them bouncing back in any big way even with a month layoff.
South Carolina’s defense has been its strength compared to an offense that’s averaged just 19.2 PPG, but the defense couldn’t contain Deshaun Watson and the Tigers, giving up 21-points in the first quarter and the game just got out of hand from there.
With Flowers and Marlon Mack, who in his own right is dominant with 1,137 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, the Bulls have plenty of firepower to jump out to an early lead.
Granted, this USF team is heavily lacking compared to one of the elite defenses in Clemson, but if the Bulls get out to a quick lead, that could lead to the Gamecocks burying themselves. If that happens, the fact the Bulls are allowing 482.3 total yards per game will not matter so much.
Free ATS Pick
Jake Bentley has shown some flashes this season for South Carolina and really helped the offense improve when he took over under center. The freshman has a nice college career ahead of him, but he doesn’t come close to matching up with one of the games’ best players.
Look for Flowers to dominant on the ground and in the air as USF dismantles the South Carolina defense.
While the Gamecocks will be able to get on the board a bit more frequently than they did in their last game, Bentley will be forced to throw the ball, taking the running game mostly out of the mix with the Bulls pulling ahead early.
Take USF to dominant while Flowers puts himself on the map on a bigger stage with even a Will Muschamp led defense unable to stop him.
College Football Odds: South Florida 38, South Carolina 21
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