In a battle of the Tigers, surprisingly Memphis is the one with a three game SU edge going against a 6-6 Auburn team.
Memphis's 63-0 shellacking of Southern Methodist to close out the regular season should add to their confidence heading into this game.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Memphis Tigers +3
Auburn Tigers -3
Over/Under 61.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Auburn comes into play at 6-6, but still-based on name as much as anything-is the prohibitive favorites in the Birmingham Bowl.
The spread has held at -3 since the odds were released, though the total has grown in a game featuring the seventh best offense in the country. It's jumped two points since it was released, now sitting at 63.5.
Memphis has embraced non-conference games and stands 18-7-2 ATS out of conference while Auburn is just 5-18 ATS in its last 23 overall.
KEY MISMATCH
Memphis is amongst the best offensive teams in the country with 510.4 yards per game. The team's strength comes through the air, but the rushing game is above average as well.
Running back Jamarius Henderson is probable to play and is one of four players with more than 300 rushing yards. The team leader in rushing is Doroland Dorceus whose 144 carries, 613 yards and eight touchdowns all lead the team.
In the passing game, Paxton Lynch looks to Mose Frazier more than anyone else though he, Anthony Miller and Phil Mayhue all have at least 44 receptions and at least 644 yards.
Overall, Lynch is completing 69 percent of his passes for 28 yards and has thrown just three interceptions.
Auburn will try and do something most teams can't: stop Lynch. Auburn, however, is below average defensively, struggling both against the pass and against the rush.
KEY STAT
6 – This is Memphis's turnover margin. The Tigers have forced 19 turnovers on 10 fumbles and nine interceptions. Thanks to Lynch's accuracy, they've turned the ball over 13 times themselves.
Interestingly, Auburn isn't too far off pace despite its overall struggles. They're offense has been up and down due to an unsettled passing game ranked No. 108 in the nation, but as a team, they've only been picked off nine times and lost just five fumbles.
BETTING ANGLE
Jeremy Johnson started the season under center for Auburn, but lost his spot to redshirt freshman Sean White due to ineffective play that caused the Tigers to get out to a 1-4 start in SEC play.
Auburn bounced back some under Sean White, but an injury called Johnson back into action. It's uncertain whether White or Johnson will get the start at quarterback on Wednesday.
Regardless of who is under center, it's up to the Tigers' rushing attack to keep pace with the high-powered Memphis offense. Auburn averaged 228 rushing yards and seven scores over the last four games.
Memphis gave up plenty of yards on the ground numerous times including against Navy and Temple.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
This game could show both teams reaching well into the 30s in points before all is said and done. It could go either way so look for Memphis to cover the spread and be in position for a possible upset.
In Memphis, the Tigers potent offense was a big story and that offense should continue to deliver on Wednesday. The other Tigers have their running game going and that should continue as well.
Look for Memphis's offense to do enough to earn them the win, so take the underdog to cover.
Memphis 37, Auburn 35
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