In what ultimately should be a massive shootout featuring a pair of strong passing offenses, the Memphis Tigers and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers matchup in the Boca Raton Bowl. This will be Western Kentucky’s second straight appearance in a bowl game in South Florida. They beat South Florida in the Miami Beach Bowl a season ago.
This matchup in the Boca Raton Bowl will take place on Tuesday, December 20, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at FAU Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Memphis +5
Western Kentucky -5
Over/Under
Odds Analysis
With a couple high powered offenses, these reasonably balanced teams are separated by less a touchdown in the spread and that’s appropriate.
Memphis enters the game having covered the spread in three of their last four games after snapping a five game losing streak ATS. The Hilltoppers are in a similar position. They were 6-7 ATS compared to the Tigers’ 5-7 mark. Western Michigan covered the spread in five of their last six games.
Matchup to Watch
Offensively, both teams are stacked, able to put up a ton of points in no time. Memphis is driven by Riley Ferguson. He’s totaled 28 touchdowns and 3,326 passing yards as one of the better QBs in college football. Alongside of him, the Tigers have a strong rushing game thanks to Doroland Dorceus.
Similarly, Western Kentucky scores in bunches. They have the fifth best passing offense with 336.8 passing yards per game. Mike White has a 67.2 completion percentage and has even more yards than Ferguson with 4,027. He also boasts a 34:6 touchdown to interception ratio.
On the ground, Anthony Wales has been flat out dominant, rushing for 1,376 yards and 24 touchdowns.
There’s no doubt the Western Kentucky numbers are better, but all in all, these two offenses are both dynamic. What will be the difference maker will be which defense will be good enough to record a key stop or two to help swing the momentum.
Neither team has tons of weapons on defense, each preferring to out slug the opposition, airing the ball down the field.
That said, the Hilltoppers do have a few strong performers and that’ll be enough to slow Ferguson and Dorceus just enough while White and Wales move the chains, building off a 58-points outpouring against Louisiana Tech in the Conference USA title game.
Western Kentucky’s offense gets all the headlines, but the Hilltoppers are holding opponents to the 37th fewest total yards per game. The Tigers, on the other hand, rank No. 90 in that category.
Key Stat
The Hilltoppers total offensive numbers are better. Their defense is more capable, but one thing playing in the Tigers’ favor is their total turnover margin.
Memphis is ranked ninth in all of college football in that category with 28 turnovers gained on defense thanks to 13 forced fumbles and 15 picks. On offense, they’ve allowed 18 turnovers, nine in the air and nine fumbles. That gives them a margin of 10. That’s nearly one more gained than lost per game. With a matchup as close as this is, winning the turnover battle could make a huge difference.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the field, Western Kentucky has been a net neutral team in terms of turnovers with no margin. They’ve allowed 18 turnovers and have recorded 18 on defense. White’s been good at avoiding the interception, particularly considering how much he throws, but the running game has had issues from time to time holding onto the ball. Simultaneously, the defense was been able to get a few key stops, but it’s the Memphis defense that’s done better with the turnovers.
Free ATS Pick
This is a great game for fans that love offense and for bettors looking to play on the over. Both offenses roll, scoring early and often with neither defense able to contain the firepower, but it’s White and company that does the most damage as he just destroys the Tigers’ defense, throwing the ball seemingly at will. .
Meanwhile, Western Kentucky struggles to slow Ferguson, but manages a key stop late to allow the Hilltoppers to come out on top.
The 58-44 win over Louisiana Tech was a nice model and test run for this bowl game. Tuesday’s showdown will likely end up a bit closer, but the Hilltoppers should cover the five-point spread with a win by more than a touchdown.
College Football Odds: Western Kentucky 48, Memphis 40
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