The Iowa Hawkeyes may not have the shiniest overall record, but few teams have pulled off a three-game stretch as impressive as their last three of the regular season. Iowa will aim to keep it rolling when they face off against the Florida Gators in the Outback Bowl.
The Hawkeyes are slight underdogs but the spread is close enough in that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this game go either way. Florida has lost two straight games but the last one was against the country’s best team, Alabama, so there’s no shame in that. The Gators hope to bounce back in this showdown.
This contest of the bowl season will go down Monday, December 2, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Iowa +2.5
Florida -2.5
Over/Under 40.5
Odds Analysis
Iowa is less than a field goal underdog and more than 51 percent of the betting action has come in on the Hawkeyes to cover. With a moneyline of +119, Iowa is a popular choice on the moneyline.
The scoring total is extremely low because both defenses are great and the offenses are subpar. Despite the low total, more than 88 percent of the action has jumped on the “under” as most expect a slugfest.
Iowa is 8-4 straight up and 6-6 against the spread. The Hawkeyes have been the underdog four times this year, covering in a pair of them. Iowa has knocked off No. 3 Michigan, Illinois and No. 16 Nebraska in its last three games and will aim to keep playing well.
Florida is 8-4 straight up and 5-7 against the spread. The Gators have been favored in eight of their games and covered in four of them.
Player to Watch
LeShun Daniels Jr. – The Iowa running back leads the team in rushing yards this season and he’s been on fire lately. Daniels has accumulated 317 yards and four touchdowns in the past two victories against Illinois and Nebraska.
Both games also included long runs including a 50-yards touchdown run against Illinois. Daniels has rushed for 1,013 yards and ten touchdowns this season and will look to continue his hot streak in the Outback Bowl.
Florida’s weakness defensively is stopping the run, so this will be a huge matchup in that regard.
Key Stat
17.9. That’s the exact number of points that both of these defenses are allowing coming into this matchup. With two stout defenses, this one could be a very low-scoring affair.
The Gators will be looking to rebound from two tough losses to Alabama and Florida State where Florida allowed 85 points. The main focus for both defense will be on stopping the run and whomever succeed could very well capture the victory.
While the Gators have struggled of late, Iowa’s offense is not nearly as explosive as those offenses. Florida should be able to control this one.
Free ATS Pick
Iowa’s recent play is encouraging, but there are too many holes in the team. The Hawkeyes have a nice running game but the passing game is not very impressive. Quarterback C.J. Beathard has thrown for 1,874 yards with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions on the season but isn’t asked to do too much.
Florida’s passing game is also questionable, so it could come down to which defense plays better in this one. The Gators have the bigger star power on defense and should be able to claim this win.
Both teams have some flaws but Florida has more overall talent. The Gators will be able to pull out a close, low-scoring game, and the half-point is a big one as a field-goal margin could result in a win on the spread.
College Football Odds: Florida 23, Iowa 20
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