The Nebraska Cornhuskers and Tennessee Volunteers both reached the top 10 of the national rankings earlier this season but struggled down the stretch. They will face off in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl in a matchup that should be competitive.
The Volunteers are the slight favorites but both teams have been good enough in past games that this one is liable to go either way. Tennessee has a big quarterback advantage if Nebraska’s Tommy Armstrong can’t play and that could end up being the difference.
Watch this bowl season matchup live on Friday, December 30, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Nebraska +3
Tennessee -3
Over/Under 60.5
Odds Analysis
Tennessee is a small favorite and the betting action has gone toward it to cover at a nearly 70 percent clip. The Volunteers are a -155 bet on the moneyline while Nebraska is +135. Tennessee seems like a better play on the spread at those odds.
The scoring total could be a bit low as the “over” has been the play in about 73 percent of the action early on.
The Volunteers are 8-4 straight up and 5-7 against the spread. Tennessee has been the favorite 10 times this year but has only covered in four of them.
Nebraska is 9-3 straight up and 7-4-1 against the spread. The Cornhuskers have covered once in three attempts as the underdog this season.
Injury Update
Nebraska could be without Tommy Armstrong, Jr., who is still nursing a hamstring injury. He originally suffered the injury on Nov. 12 and aggravated it two weeks later.
Armstrong, Jr. has thrown for 2,180 yards with 14 touchdowns and eight interceptions and added 512 rushing yards and eight more scores. Even if Armstrong can play, a hamstring injury could limit his effectiveness on the ground.
Nebraska is planning to use Ryker Fyfe at quarterback instead. He has thrown for 315 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in spot duty and could have the reins in this one once again.
The quarterback position is a critical spot, and if Armstrong can’t go, that’s a big blow to Nebraska.
Player to Watch
Joshua Dobbs – Despite the loss against Vanderbilt on November 26th, the Tennessee quarterback is coming off a big game in his last outing. He was 31-of-34 for 340 yards with two touchdowns against the Commodores.
Dobbs has thrown for 2,655 yards this season with 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He has been on a hot streak lately, accumulating 786 yards in the air with eight touchdowns and one interception.
Dobbs has a lot of experience and should do well handling the pressure of a bowl game. While Nebraska has questions under center, one of Tennessee’s best players is its quarterback, which could be a big advantage.
Free ATS Pick
These two teams look very even, as each made runs during the regular season before falling on tough times. Neither are among the best teams in the country but could be in that next tier of good-but-not great teams.
Two of Nebraska’s losses came to conference powers Wisconsin and Ohio State. Those are understandable, but a blowout loss to Iowa was a bad look to end the regular season. Tennessee started 5-0 but couldn’t handle a stretch which included games against top-10 foes Texas A&M and Alabama.
The Volunteers also suffered a disappointing end to the regular season, falling to Vanderbilt. Both will aim to bounce back in this one but only one can end the year on a high note.
Nebraska may be a little bit better team overall, but the expected absence of Armstrong is too much to overcome. Take Dobbs and the Volunteers to emerge victorious as well as cover the spread in this matchup.
College Football Odds: Tennessee 27, Nebraska 21
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