The Penn State Nittany Lions barely missed out on the College Football Playoff, watching the Ohio State Buckeyes make it despite Penn State winning the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions will aim to shelve their disappointment in a matchup with the USC Trojans in the Rose Bowl.
While Penn State feels like it had a case to make the national semifinals, the proof will be in the pudding in this one. The oddsmakers agree that the Nittany Lions are not one of the top teams in the country as USC is the favorite by nearly a touchdown. It helps that USC is playing in its home town at the nearby Rose Bowl.
Kickoff for this bowl game is set for Monday, January 2, 2016, at 5 p.m. ET at the Rose Bowl.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
USC -6.5
Penn State +6.5
Over/Under 62
Odds Analysis
USC is the favorite but a fraction more of the bettors believe Penn State is the right call since it is getting nearly a touchdown, with 51 percent of the action on the Nittany Lions. Penn State is the heavy choice on the moneyline, as 87 percent of the money is taking the Nittany Lions at +220.
The scoring total has been deemed a touch too low as 62 percent of the money has chosen the “over.”
USC is 9-3 straight up this season and 8-4 against the spread. The Trojans have done extremely well as the favorite this season, covering in seven of eight games when giving points.
Penn State is 11-2 straight up and 9-3-1 against the spread. The Nittany Lions have been the underdog five times this season and have covered four times.
Player to Watch
Sam Darnold -- The Trojans have taken off since Darnold was given the reins full time. The team went 1-2 without him starting and while it lost his first start against Utah, USC has been dominant since.
USC enters this bowl game winners of eight straight games, including an upset of Washington on the road. Darnold is 213-of-313 for 2,633 yards this season with 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
In his most recent game, Darnold threw for 205 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a blowout win over Notre Dame. He has been a steadying presence on offense and is a big reason why the Trojans are favored in this matchup.
Penn State has a defense which is only allowing 23.4 points and less than 200 passing yards per game, so it will give Darnold a stiff test. The winner of this matchup will have a big leg up.
Key Stat
Nine. That’s the number of victories in a row Penn State has reeled off since starting 2-2. The Nittany Lions were blown out by Michigan early in Big Ten conference play and were an afterthought on the national scene, but have been very impressive ever since.
Penn State upset No. 2 Ohio State to turn some heads and the Buckeyes’ win over Michigan later on helped the NIttany Lions make it to the Big Ten title game on a tiebreaker. The Nittany Lions made the best of that by knocking off No. 6 Wisconsin to thrust themselves into the College Football Playoff conversation.
It didn’t work out, but Penn State enters this game as one of the hottest teams in football.
Free ATS Pick
If the Nittany Lions win this game in the backyard of USC, they will have a worthy gripe for being left out of the national semifinals. However, the Trojans have been just as good down the stretch and enter as the favorites in this one.
Penn State may have gotten more headlines of late, but USC is the better team. The Trojans are the choice to not only win this game but to cover the spread, extinguishing the idea that Penn State deserved to be in the semifinals.
College Football Odds: USC 28, Penn State 20
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