The South Alabama Jaguars have never won a bowl game, and they would love to make history by knocking off the Air Force Falcons in the Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl.
It would be a monumental upset as South Alabama enters this matchup as a heavy underdog. Air Force has won five straight games and most recently knocked off a ranked Boise State team, so it has to be feeling good heading into this matchup. The Falcons would love to take care of business and reach double-digit wins on the season in this one.
This matchup in Week 1 of the regular season will take place on Friday, December 30, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Arizona Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
South Alabama +13
Air Force -13
Over/Under 58
Odds Analysis
Even as a solid favorite, Air Force has taken in about 70 percent of the betting action to cover the spread. The Falcons are -510 on the moneyline, and South Alabama the +390 underdog. The Jaguars are an intriguing wager at that payout.
The scoring total may be a bit high as about three-quarters of the betting action has taken the “under” in the earlygoing of betting.
Air Force is 9-3 straight up but just 5-7 against the spread on the season. The Falcons have been the favorite in all but one game this season but have only covered in four of those 11 attempts.
South Alabama is 6-6 straight up and 3-8-1 against the spread. The Jaguars are 3-3-1 as underdog against the spread this season.
Player to Watch
Dallas Davis -- The best way for South Alabama to remain close in this game is to get a big performance from its starting quarterback. Davis has thrown for 2,461 yards with 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the season.
He threw for 239 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions while adding 74 rushing yards last time out in a win over New México State. Davis is a dual threat but must keep the turnovers down as a propensity to throw interceptions could be South Alabama’s downfall in this one.
Key Stat
322.8. That’s how many rushing yards the Air Force offense is averaging per game. The Falcons rank No. 3 in the nation for rushing yards per game.
The Air Force operates behind a stable of running backs including Jacobi Owens, Timothy McVey, D.J. Johnson and Arion Worthman. The foursome has accumulated 2,672 yards and 21 touchdowns this season.
South Alabama’s defense has stepped up nicely near the end of the season but will need to do well against an Air Force running game that is more potent than what it has faced most of the time this season.
Free ATS Pick
Air Force is riding high after the upset of Boise State and is in line to finish the season with six consecutive victories. The Falcons lost three in a row in the middle of the season and could have let that put a damper on the season, but they bounced back impressively the rest of the way.
South Alabama knocked off Mississippi State early in the year so it certainly knows how to pull off an upset. The Jaguars need another big performance from their defense in order to stay close in this one.
Air Force has too much talent on the ground for the Jaguars to handle, but the bigger question is if the spread is going to be covered. The choice here is for the Falcons to wear down South Alabama with the running game and get a late score to not only seal the win but also cover by the slimmest of margins.
The 13-point spread is key as a two-touchdown margin would be profitable for Air Force backers.
College Football Odds: Air Force 31, South Alabama 17
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