The Penn State Nittany Lions were embarrassed in their season opener as they couldn’t get anything going on offense and struggled to slow down the opposing running game. They’ll get another shot on Saturday, this time at home against the Buffalo Bulls.
ODDS
The line opened on Sunday evening with the Nittany Lions 18.5-point favorites over Buffalo. Currently, the line remains at 18.5. These teams last met in 2007, with Penn State winning SU, but losing ATS.
Penn State lost their first game of the year both SU and ATS when the Temple Owls upset them 27-10. The loss lowered their record ATS in their last 10 games to 3-6-1.
On the other side, the Bulls won their opener in commanding fashion, beating Albany 51-14, easily covering the spread by 23 points. This will be Buffalos’ first game this year as the underdog. In that role last year, they went 3-2 ATS.
KEY MISMATCH
The mismatch here should be Penn State’s defense over the Bulls defense. As far as against Buffalo’s offense, that should be an interesting battle of strength versus strength.
The Nittany Lions defense carried the team to a much needed winning record in 2014 while quarterback Christian Hackenberg was spotty.
The Nittany Lions held opponents to just 19 points per game and should once again be solid. Jahad Thomas did have success against Penn State on the ground last week, but the passing game was held pretty much in check.
Buffalo’s offense returns much of the unit that averaged 32 points per game with Joe Licata back under center, Ron Willoughby back as the lead target and even Anthone Taylor back in the backfield.
While the offense is really good, the defense is just as bad, allowing 31 points per game and even allowing a pair of touchdowns to Albany in Week 1. The Nittany Lions’ offense is a huge question, but they should be able to outperform Buffalo’s.
KEY STAT
10 – This is the number of times Hackenberg was sacked against the Owls. The offensive line, and Hackenberg himself, will need to do a much better job of keeping the quarterback on his feet if they’re going to have any shot of covering the spread on Saturday.
That number is easily more than any other team in the sport. On the other side, they were only able to sack Temple twice, giving them a -8 ratio in the early going.
BETTING ANGLE
The Nittany Lions are going to come out on a mission in their home opener after an upsetting loss.
Penn State had a lot of excitement going into the year after a seven win season under James Franklin a year ago. The second year head coach knows his team needs to get back on track quickly and a commanding victory over Buffalo would surely help.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
This should be an interesting matchup as the Penn State defense and Buffalo offense face off. On the other side, the Nittany Lions—even with a lackluster offense—should be able to put at least a few scores on the board against a dismal Buffalo defense.
Overall, the Nittany Lions proved nothing in Week 1 and if Anthone Taylor is able to be as effective as Jahad Thomas was on the ground last week, the Bulls will be able to break through the Penn State defense to at least keep this one close.
I don’t expect an upset, but I do think this will be closer than the spread would indicate, particularly with a number of linebacker injuries calling into question Penn State’s strength.
Penn State 27, Buffalo 20
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