The Baylor Bears and Boise State Broncos arrive at this Motel 6 Cactus Bowl in two very different ways. For the Broncos it involved huge offensive production and a constant streak of wins. For the Bears, they got here on the strength of their first six games before losing six in a row to close out the regular season.
Kickoff for this Motel 6 Cactus Bowl game is set for Tuesday, December 27, 2016, at 10:15 p.m. ET at Chase Field.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Boise State -7
Baylor +7
Over/Under 67
Odds Analysis
Offense is the name of the game for both of these teams. As a result, the total sits at 67, though that’s down a point from the opening mark.
As to the spread, the Broncos are favored by a touchdown, but that seems a bit low given their 10-2 record compared to a Baylor team in the midst of a six game losing streak. Baylor did, however, cover the spread in the only game that the Bears were underdogs in that span.
Besides, both Boise State and Baylor ended the year 3-9 ATS with the Broncos failing to cover six of their last seven games.
Injury Report
With Seth Russell still sidelined with a fractured ankle, Zach Smith will get another crack at leading this Baylor offense.
Smith struggled in the Bears’ loss to West Virginia, completing less than half of his passes and tossing a pair of interceptions, but against a weaker defense, he performed well against Texas Tech, throwing for 377 yards and three scores.
Still, in all, Smith has been prone to key mistakes as to be expected from the backup. He’s already thrown six interceptions to just 10 touchdowns.
Baylor needs a big game from Smith as the defense for the Bears is an absolute disaster. Offensively, this team can still score points, but even that is hindered under Smith who has yet to lead this team to victory. That said, Smith does seemingly have a good connection with receiver Ishmeal Zamora. The sophomore has caught 20 passes in the last two games for 257 yards and two scores.
Meanwhile, the running game should be in place to help Smith out some, too. Terence Williams is dealing with a bit of a knee injury, but is likely to play. He’s delivered 237 yards and three scores in his last two games. He leads a rushing attack ranked No. 12 in the nation.
With little to be expected from the defense, the chances for the Bears seemingly come down to a backup QB and the health of a bum knee for Williams.
Match up to Watch
Flipping things over, Boise State has a somewhat underrated defense. They’re allowing just 22.7 PPG, ranking No. 29 in college football. Still, they’re beatable up front by a strong running game so Williams could have a solid outing if his knee holds up.
In the air, the Broncos are a bit better. They rank No. 27 in passing yards. Look for the secondary to try and shutdown Zamora, taking away some of Smith’s comfortability and forcing him to look elsewhere.
While the Broncos’ defense’s ability to stop a weakened Bears’ offense is worth watching, the key matchup here is on the other side.
Boise State has a balanced offense. They scored just 20 against Air Force in a loss last time out, but they scored at least 42-points in three straight games before that.
Defensively, Baylor’s defensive front hasn’t shown the ability to stop even a mediocre running game. Keep a close watch on what Jeremy McNichols is able to do. It’s no coincidence that the running back’s first sub-100 yard game since the beginning of October came in the Air Force loss.
Before that, McNichols had gone four straight games with at least a pair of touchdowns, gaining at least 5.6 yards per carry in each one of those games and amassing at least 143 yards.
On the year, McNichols has been otherworldly and needs to be the key focus of the Bears’ defense. If they can even slow him a bit, that could open the door for Baylor. After all, outside of McNichols, no other Bronco has carried the ball more than 60 times. McNichols has 295 carries for 1,663 yards and 23 rushing touchdowns. He then helps out Brett Rypien in the passing game as a short target, catching 32 balls for 450 yards and adding four more scores.
Free ATS Pick
It’s hard to trust either of these teams ATS, but with the spread just a touchdown and the complete collapse we saw from Baylor, look to the Boise State offense to control the game and get the win by well more than a single touchdown.
McNichols shouldn’t have an issue exploiting the Baylor front seven while Rypien can tear through the secondary. Even if the Bears can slow one of these two players, the other will make up the difference.
College Football Odds: Boise State 45, Baylor 29
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