The 2015-16 bowl season will come to its thrilling conclusion on January 2 at the Cactus Bowl, where the Arizona State Sun Devils and West Virginia Mountaineers will provide the very last appetizer before the College Football Playoff National Championship on January 10.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
West Virginia Mountaineers +1
Arizona State Sun Devils -1
Over/Under 66.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
This is a de facto home game for Arizona State, so it shouldn't be all that surprising that it opened up as a short favorite in the Cactus Bowl. However, few will argue with the fact that the Mountaineers are at least just as good, if not substantially better than the Sun Devils are. That's why this spread has shot the other direction in the first couple weeks of betting lines being open. West Virginia is now set at -1.5 as of the publication of this article.
The total has dipped quite a bit as well from 66.5 to 64.
KEY MISMATCH
The West Virginia offensive line could be in a lot of trouble in this game. The Mountaineers are only dropping back and throwing the ball 31.5 times per game, but Skyler Howard isn't the most accurate passer in the world, and he tends to hold onto the ball way too long when he's diagnosing defenses. He takes an average of 2.7 sacks per game, and he's going against an ASU defensive line averaging 3.7 sacks per game.
Antonio Longino is one of the top outside rushers in the nation, and he and D.J. Calhoun coming off of the opposite edge have combined for 17 sacks thus far in 2015. It wouldn't be shocking to see those two men wreck the West Virginia passing attack, especially if Arizona State knows that passes are coming in third and long situations.
KEY STAT
25.3 – The number of points per game which West Virginia averaged this season against Power 5 conference bowl teams. The Mountaineers averaged 41.2 points per game against all other teams they played against this season. The difference is in the passing game, where Howard really struggled mightily against the best teams in the Big XII all year long. In a related story, West Virginia went just 1-5 SU and ATS against Big XII bowl teams this year and 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS against the rest of America.
BETTING ANGLE
Arizona State closed out its regular season with three straight covers, and a lot of that had to do with an offense which all of a sudden came to life at the end of the campaign. Mike Bercovici had some amazing moments last year when he came off of the bench to salvage the Sun Devils' season, but this year, he threw for 3,436 yards and 26 TDs against nine picks, numbers which always felt like were lacking. However, Bercovici averaged nearly 10 yards per pass attempt in his last three games of the year and was a lot more explosive than he has been for most of the rest of the year.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
We really think West Virginia was blown out of proportion all season long. The Mountaineers beat up on a bad schedule, and when push came to shove and they ran into the best teams in the Big XII, they were never on the same playing field. Sure, they won some games at the end of the campaign against some more bad teams, but that doesn't mean they're capable of beating an above average team from one of the best conferences in America.
Especially knowing that this is a home game, we can't fade the Sun Devils. Bercovici should be able to come up with another really good game to lead ASU to a victory.
Arizona State 34, West Virginia 27
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go.
Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The matchup between the West Virginia Mountaineers and Arizona State Sun Devils will take place Saturday, January 2, 2016 at 10:15 p.m. ET at Chase Field. The contest will be televised nationally on ESPN.
