With both teams coming off losses, the battle between the Pac-12’s two UC institutions may have lost some of its pizzazz. But it remains an intriguing matchup that features two of the finest young quarterbacks in the conference. While Jared Goff and Josh Rosen can light up the scoreboard, the key in this one is likely the running game.
ODDS
UCLA opened as a 4-point favorite with the total at 67. Oddsmakers and voters apparently can’t reach a consensus on the Cal team. The Bears jumped three spots to No. 20 in the AP poll, but enter as an underdog against unranked UCLA, which has lost its last two games by double-digit margins. The line was wagered down to -3 while the total tumbled to 64.
KEY MISMATCH
Amid all the injuries and problems facing the Bruins defense in recent weeks, one area that never entered the picture as being a concern was UCLA’s kicking game, in particular the punting part of it. Lost in the wasteland that was the Stanford game was the anemic punting situation. Matt Mengel averaged just 37.8 yards on six punts with a long of 46 and never flipped the field in the Bruins favor. His kicking woes likely didn’t change the outcome of the game, but this isn’t an entirely new problem for the Bruins, and it’s been magnified with the team’s recent struggles. Mengel is averaging just 38 yards per punt on the season. There have been some short fields here and there, but that average just isn’t good enough and the Bruins are losing the ongoing field position battle more than they have to. Coach Jim Mora would only say that they “are working on some things” and noted the short punts are at least preventing any long returns.
KEY STAT
27.7 – UCLA’s points per game allowed. Since losing three top defensive players, the Bruins have surrendered an average of 41.3 points over their last three games and were blitzed for 56 last week by Stanford. Cal scores an average of 34.8 point per game.
BETTING ANGLE
The bye came at an ideal time for Cal. It gave the Bears several extra days to recover both physically and emotionally from the loss at Utah, which is an invaluable opportunity for a team not used to playing big games. It also came in the middle of the season, allowing for the team to recover and hit the reset button for the stretch drive. Combined with UCLA’s quirky schedule, it gives the Bears a rare competitive advantage. Teams are required to have a bye the weekend before playing Thursday night. But UCLA’s Thursday back-to-back means the Bruins have only the standard week to prepare for Cal, while Cal has five extra days to prepare for UCLA. The Bears have proven to be a good bet when travelling the last two seasons, going 7-1 ATS in their eight away games.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Expect plenty of fireworks at the Rosen Bowl on Thursday between two teams that like to push the pace. The Bruins are trying to figure out how to stop opponents with three main pieces of the defense missing and it hasn’t gone so well. Stanford abused them for 310 yards on the ground and amassed the highest point total against UCLA in five years. Cal isn’t much of a threat on the ground, so that’s encouraging for the Bruins, but the air raid offense directed by Goff is exciting to watch. Goff was derailed in a loss to Utah when he tossed five picks and the Bears turned the ball over six times. Despite all the mistakes, Cal was in position to possibly win the game. Goff will need better protection from an O-line that’s allowed 11 sacks in the last three games. The Bruins will use Paul Perkins to churn out yards and burn the clock, keeping Goff on the bench. While the Bears will protect the ball better, they’ll have a tough time winning on the road against an angry group of Bruins.
UCLA 31, Cal 27
BookMaker opened the spread for this game at -4 in favor of the Bruins. The NCAA lines total surfaced at 67. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone or tablet with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the Cal Golden Bears and UCLA Bruins will take place Thursday, October 22, 2015, at 9 p.m. ET at the Rose Bowl. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
