Michigan came within a botched punt of being a big deal in the Big Ten. But the Wolverines are on their way under first-year coach Jim Harbaugh. Another first-year coach has the Gators playing at a high level, at least defensively. Unfortunately Jim McElwain and Florida is hurting at quarterback and that’s likely their downfall.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Florida Gators +4
Michigan Wolverines -4
Over/Under 41.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Florida’s offensive woes over the last month-and-a-half turned totals bettors to the under. The Gators played below the final total in seven of their last nine games and a late, meaningless touchdown against Alabama in the SEC title game ended the streak at five straight. The total dropped to 38.5.
KEY MISMATCH
During the final two games of the season, the Gators offense registered a single touchdown. It came in garbage time against Alabama. Quarterback Treon Harris is too limited to create a difference as a passer on anything other than a downfield prayer. But he doesn’t lack speed, and that’s something which has given Michigan’s defense some problems. Utah’s Travis Wilson ran for 51 yards and a touchdown against the Wolverines, Minnesota’s Mitch Leidner scampered for a 24-yard score and Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett piled up 139 yards, reaching the end zone three times. Michigan’s linebackers must contain Harris sideline to sideline, which is easier said than done. The unit has struggled this season blowing gap assignments and relying on ineffective arm tackles. But if the Wolverines allow only a couple of significant runs, they shouldn’t have many problems locking up the Gators.
KEY STAT
68.75 – Florida’s red zone scoring percentage. The Gators are 123rd in the nation in scoring points inside the opponent’s 20-yard-line. Michigan allowed just 13 opponent touchdowns on 31 red zone visits.
BETTING ANGLE
No game this bowl season is screaming defensive battle more than the Citrus Bowl matchup between Florida and Michigan. Both teams are able to mask inferior offenses with stellar defensive play that nearly got them to the College Football Playoff. The Gators have only allowed 16.5 points per game while the Wolverines are giving up just 17.2 points per game. In their 25 combined games this season, the two have held opponents to single-digits nine times. Michigan could be without Big Ten Freshman of the Year Jabrill Peppers, who held down the Wolverines secondary from his safety spot, but made an immediate impact as a three-way player. Michigan was one bad punt play against Michigan State from the Ohio State game being for the Big Ten East, but as close as Michigan was to having a truly special year, it was just as close to being merely average, surviving Indiana in overtime and making a goal line stand against Minnesota.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Since the suspension of quarterback Will Grier, the Gators’ offense has scored 11 touchdowns and two field goals over a six-game stretch. Florida will not beat Michigan with only 14 points from the unit whose sole purpose is to score. Teams easily figured out that Harris couldn’t really throw. Now he gets to deal with Michigan’s secondary that’s allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just 48 percent of their passes on the year with seven touchdowns. Two evenly-matched teams will make for a close game, but the Wolverines have the edge at quarterback and in the kicking game. Jake Rudock will outplay Harris and the Gators’ lack of a competent placekicker will put even more pressure on the offense to produce – and that’s just not happening for Florida.
Michigan 23, Florida 16
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