Nobody can stop the Navy Midshipmen running game. If the Air Force Falcons want to pull the upset over their military brethren in Week 6, they will have to at least keep it from running roughshod. While these teams have very different records in 2017, the gap isn’t as big as they would indicate.
Air Force, just 1-3 on the season, will certainly be underdogs in this matchup, but a few key bounces that head its way could help this game close. Navy is undefeated through four games and plays at home in this one, so the confidence is there that it will keep on rolling with another easy victory.
The Midshipmen will push for a 5-0 start by taking care of business in this one.
This contest in Week 6 of the regular season will go down Saturday, October 7, 2017, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Air Force +7.5
Navy -7.5
Over/Under 52
Odds Analysis
The oddsmakers added the half point on the spread to get some action on Air Force, as a loss by a touchdown margin would still result in a cover. It hasn’t worked too well, as 67 percent of the money is still on Navy to cover.
The scoring total is in the middle of the pack for a college football game. While both teams should be able to move the ball on the ground, it keeps the scoring down because the clock is always running. The “under” is the more popular choice thus far.
The Falcons are +237 underdogs on the moneyline in this matchup, while Navy is the -290 favorite. The vast majority is on Air Force to pull the upset at those odds.
Key Stat
400. That’s Navy’s average rushing yards total per game, which is an astounding number. Quarterback Zach Abey has been carrying the majority of the load, as he has 117 carries this season for 656 yards and seven touchdowns.
There are several other players who have contributed to the ground game. Chris High has 60 carries for 288 yards and a touchdown this season, while Malcolm Perry has added 23 carries for 219 yard and two touchdowns.
Abey has attempted only 29 passes all season, completing 12 of them for 385 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. The yards per attempt of 13.28 is extremely high, as Navy can often come up with big plays through the air because it is used so infrequently.
Air Force is also a heavy rushing team, averaging 274.8 yards per game on the ground in 2017. Expect to see plenty of carries in this one.
Upset Watch
Air Force has lost three straight since a dominant start, but this team is better than it looks. The Falcons hung around against powerhouse Michigan on Sept. 16, trailing by only six points heading into the fourth quarter before losing by 16.
They also gave a ranked San Diego State team a scare, holding a three-point lead late in the contest before eventually succumbing. While Navy is a solid team, the Falcons are not far behind.
Don’t be shocked to see a back-and-forth affair.
Free ATS Pick
If this game was a toss-up for any bettors, the 7.5 point spread makes Air Force the easy choice. The Falcons should be able to keep this margin within a touchdown for sure, and a favorable big play or two could even result in an outright win.
Both teams should be able to move the ball pretty well on the ground, and this one could be a shootout. Take the “over” and Navy to win a close one, but for Air Force to cover.
College Football Odds: Navy 31, Air Force 27
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