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Terry Bowden is looking to take the Akron Zips to their fourth bowl appearance ever. Two years ago, Bowden led the Zips to their first bowl victory in school history, knocking off Utah State 23-21 in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Currently, Akron sits at 5-4 and needs one win over the next three weeks to get to bowl eligibility and will almost certainly be guaranteed a bowl bid. The Zips’ first chance for win number six will be against the Miami Ohio Redhawks this Tuesday night.
This matchup in Week 11 of the regular season will take place on Tuesday, November 7, 2017, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Yager Stadium in Oxford, Ohio. This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Akron +5
Miami (Ohio) -5
Odds Analysis
Although the Zips are tied with Ohio for first place in the MAC East, sharps are not a fan of this team. Akron opened as a 3.5-point underdog to a 3-6 Miami (Ohio) team and has seen that number climb to 5.
Oddsmakers have been wrong about Akron all year. The Zips have continually proved people wrong since mid-September and have covered five of their last six games. Their last two covers were outright victories in games in which they were underdogs, with one of those being an upset of Western Michigan as a 12.5-point underdog.
Conversely, oddsmakers and bettors alike have been much higher on Miami than its record indicates. The Redhawks have just three wins this season and are 2-7 ATS. They have been favored in six of their games, but have notched wins in just two of those.
Injury to Watch
It looks like Gus Ragland will be unable to go for Miami once again. Ragland has missed the last three games with a leg injury and this offense has not been as effective without him in the lineup. He is a competent passer and was on pace for 2,800 passing yards this season before the injury.
Billy Bahl has simply not been as effective as Ragland. Bahl has already thrown as many interceptions as Ragland has, despite throwing 62 less passes, and doesn’t have the same accuracy or scrambling ability. Bahl has been serviceable in relief, but the team has been unable to pull out victories. He did show something new against Ohio last week though, so there is optimism that he can build off of that performance.
Key Stats
When you look at Akron’s numbers this season, you kind of scratch your head and wonder how this team is 5-4. The Zips are outside of the Top 100 in both total offense and total defense and are getting outgained by an average of 113 yards per game. On offense, they are averaging just 6.9 yards per pass and the run game has not been able to get on track, picking up 3.5 yards a carry.
Then, you figure that this team must have received a good amount of turnover luck. That’s not the case either. Akron is dead even at +0 in turnover margin this season.
The answer seems to be a little bit of luck and the defense bending, a strong short-yardage run game, and the defense bending but not breaking. According to Bill Connelly at Football Study Hall, Akron is ninth in the country in power success rate and in the top 30 in points allowed once the opponent crosses its 40.
Free ATS Pick
I think the sharp movement is dead right on this one. Bahl looked very good for the most part against a solid Ohio defense last week and Miami knows it needs to win out to get back to bowl season. The Redhawks will be ready in this one and will knock off the Zips by double digits.
College Football Odds: Miami (Ohio) 30, Akron 16
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