The College Football Playoff Committee may have the Alabama Crimson Tide ranked No. 2, but we all know Nick Saban’s boys are the best team in the land until proven otherwise. Saban has been using the first rankings from the CFB as motivation all week and will have this team ready to go after being outgained in its win over LSU last week. The Crimson Tide have won nine in a row against this week’s opponent, the Mississippi State Bulldogs, and will look to make it ten.
Watch this regular season Week 11 matchup live on Saturday, November 11, 2017, at 7 p.m. ET at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Alabama -14
Mississippi State +14
Over/Under 51
Odds Analysis
This line hasn’t moved much since it opened. Alabama was initially a 14.5-point favorite, but sharps gobbled up that half-point quickly. The Crimson Tide have won eight of the last nine meetings in this series by at least 13 points with the one exception coming in 2014 when the Bulldogs lost by just five.
Alabama failed to cover the gigantic number last week. LSU was able to hold Alabama to under 300 total yards of offense and that meant that those with an Alabama -20.5 ticket got the loss. The Crimson Tide have now failed to cover three of their last four because of the giant spreads they have faced.
The Bulldogs got a surprising test from UMass last week. Dan Mullen and Mississippi State were probably looking past the Minutemen in anticipation of their showdown against Alabama, but had to take them seriously after falling behind at halftime. It was a disappointing performance after the Bulldogs had hammered Texas A&M and Kentucky in their previous two games.
Matchup to Watch
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what Alabama’s gameplan is going into this game and every other game on its schedule. The Crimson Tide plan to run the ball as much as possible.
Without Lane Kiffin there to spice things up, Alabama has reverted back to what it knows best. The Crimson Tide have run the ball on 65.6 percent of their plays and are doing a great job of moving the chains with the bevy of talent the school has at its disposal.
Right now, Alabama is averaging 6.1 yards per carry with Damien Harris and Jalen Hurts leading the way. Harris has proven to be more explosive than starter Bo Scarbrough and he has seen a lot more of the carries in recent weeks. They will look to keep it going against the toughest run defense they have faced all season long. The Bulldogs are allowing just 3.7 yards per carry.
Last Meeting
This game was a laugher last season. Mississippi State never stood a chance against Alabama and Nick Fitzgerald had an awful performance. Fitzgerald completed just 10 of 33 passes and averaged less than 1.5 yards per carry on the ground in the 51-3 blowout.
Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts had one of his best games of the season. Hurts threw for over 300 yards and ran for 100 yards on the ground in the victory. He was responsible for five touchdowns and this game helped give the young freshman a huge boost of confidence in Alabama’s stretch run.
Both Fitzgerald and Hurts are back for the meeting this year. Fitzgerald has really improved throughout the offseason and during the early part of this season and will look to perform better this time around.
Free ATS Pick
It’s hard to go against the Alabama juggernaut. The Crimson Tide will have something to prove after LSU stuck around with them. Keep in mind what Georgia did to Mississippi State in Athens earlier this year and you’ll get an idea of what might happen to the Bulldogs here. Expect Alabama to win in a rout.
College Football Odds: Alabama 38, Mississippi State 34
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