College Football ATS Picks - Alabama at Texas AM Game Preview

Alabama-at-Texas-AM

The Alabama Crimson Tide continue to roll over everyone in their path. Alabama has now obliterated their two SEC foes by a combined score of 125-3 and looks unstoppable. Its closest game so far has been its season opener against Florida State, and the Crimson Tide won that game by 17 points. Now, Alabama will get to put up points against another shoddy SEC defense when it takes on the Texas A&M Aggies. Unsurprisingly, the Aggies are massive underdogs in this game.

Watch this regular season Week 6 matchup live on Saturday, October 7, 2017, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Alabama -25.5
Texas A&M +25.5

Odds Analysis

Texas A&M continues its tradition of strong starts under Kevin Sumlin. The Aggies are 4-1, but no one considers this team a good one with the teams they have knocked off. Texas A&M blew a big lead against UCLA and lost, nearly lost to FCS Nicholls, and should have lost to South Carolina. The Aggies continue to find ways to win, but that will probably change with Alabama coming to town.

The Crimson Tide are 3-0 ATS against power conference opponents, but have fooled around against the lesser opponents on their schedule and are 0-2 ATS against the Mountain West. Incredibly, Alabama has only allowed 10 points in its three games against power conference opponents, an incredible feat in this day and age.

Key Stat

Alabama once again has one of the best defenses in the nation and that continues to be the key to this team’s dominance of everything college football. The Crimson Tide have allowed under 250 total yards per game this season and are allowing less than 10 points a game.

Last weekend, Alabama gave up a few big plays to Ole Miss, but played really well for the most part. It’s not hard playing with a big lead while the offense is having its way, yet the amazing thing is how locked in this team is throughout the game.

At no point did Alabama let up on defense the last two weeks. The Crimson Tide embarrassed Vanderbilt’s offense, holding the Commodores to just three first downs on the day in the shutout win. Ole Miss fared a bit better with three points on the board and a little bit of success with the big plays.

Player to Watch

The quarterback carousel continues to turn in College Station. It seems like every season has brought another heralded recruit who eventually goes on to play somewhere else after a year or two on campus.

Jake Hubenak was the nominal starter this year, but he has not seen the field much. The thought was that if Hubenak wasn’t the starter, it would be Nick Starkel, a very talented freshman. Yet, Starkel is not the starter either.

Kellen Mond is the quarterback that Sumlin has hitched himself too. Mond has had a number of struggles and growing pains as a freshman, but has been the primary starter this season. It was surprising to see Sumlin turn to him so soon after a dreadful performance in the season opener, where he completed less than 20 percent of his passes.

Mond’s ability to run the ball was key to Texas A&M wins over Arkansas and South Carolina in the last two weeks. In those two games, he ran for over 200 yards.

Free ATS Pick

This is an insane spread. Texas A&M has probably never been a home dog of this magnitude before, but Alabama is a terror and has not been stopped so far. It’s crazy to lay double digits on the road, but until Alabama shows it’s mortal again, we’re not betting against this team.

College Football Odds: Alabama 45, Texas A&M 14

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