The Stanford Cardinal ran into some trouble at the start of the season, but closed out strong. Stanford lost two of its first three games and was considered out of the national title picture pretty early on in the year. The Cardinal finished the year looking like one of the best teams in the country though, beating Washington and Notre Dame on their way to winning the PAC 12 North.
The TCU Horned Frogs were seen as one of the teams that could get to the College Football Playoff, but they couldn’t get past the Oklahoma Sooners. They lost twice to Oklahoma and that left them outside the playoff picture.
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College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Stanford +2.5
TCU -2.5
Over/Under 49
Odds Analysis
Stanford has not been as good on the defensive side of the ball this season. The Cardinal have traditionally had one of the better defenses in the country, but they have not been that good this year. They have given up far more yards than normal, yet have been able to be a bend but don’t break unit this year. That has helped the under to cash in seven of their last nine games.
TCU has a decent offense, but the defense has carried this team throughout the year. The Horned Frogs allowed just 17.6 PPG this season and that meant the under was a big winner in their games. Under went 8-1 during that stretch.
Matchup to Watch
Stanford has been a run-first team under head coach David Shaw. In recent years, it was Christian McCaffrey doing the job, and this season it’s been Bryce Love.
Love has been fantastic this season and was a Heisman Trophy finalist this year. He will likely finish the year with over 2,000 yards rushing as he only needs 27 yards to get to that point, and he found the end zone 17 times too.
If you need any evidence about what Love means to this team, look at how Stanford performed when he was injured or wasn’t playing. He missed the Oregon State game and the Cardinal offense was listless, only scoring 15 points on the Beavers. The next week, he was limited in his return against Washington State and ran for under 100 yards for the only time all year. Needless to say, Stanford lost that game.
TCU has one of the best run defenses in the nation. The Horned Frogs are one of a handful of teams in the country that are holding opponents to under 100 yards on the ground per game. It might be tough for Love to get going against this team.
Player to Watch
Kenny Hill has rejuvenated his career since coming to TCU. Hill is a Texas A&M transfer who left College Station after falling out of favor with the coaching staff and has done very well under OC Sonny Cumbie.
Hill has been able to use his legs to make plays this year and has become a more polished passer too. He is averaging 7.9 yards per throw this season and completed over two-thirds of his passes.
Stanford’s defense has been susceptible to balanced offenses this season and Hill should be able to have success against this defense.
Free ATS Pick
This isn’t the Stanford team we have seen in the past. The Cardinal just aren’t that good on defense this year and will have a hard time stopping TCU. Cumbie is one of the best young offensive coordinators in the game and will have a gameplan ready that will lead the Horned Frogs to success. Look for TCU to get a win in this one.
College Football Odds: TCU 31, Stanford 20
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