The New Mexico State Aggies are back in a bowl game for the first time since 1960. It’s been a bittersweet year for the program as this will be its last year in the Sun Belt, but getting to a bowl game for the first time in nearly six decades is a great feeling. Interestingly enough, the last time New Mexico State was in a bowl game it took on its opponent in this game, the Utah State Aggies. Back then, New Mexico State emerged victorious 20-13 in the Sun Bowl, but Utah State is planning on a different result this year.
Watch the Arizona Bowl live on Friday, December 29, 2017, at 5:30 p.m. ET at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona. This game will be broadcast on CBSSN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Mexico State +4
Utah State -4
Over/Under 62
Odds Analysis
Playing in the Sun Belt meant a lot of long road trips for New Mexico State, but the school was solid in the Land of Enchantment. The Aggies went 5-1 in games in New Mexico and that fueled their drive to becoming bowl eligible. They covered their first four games this season, but things tailed off after that. NMSU failed to cover the number in any of their final three games and lost outright as a favorite.
Utah State has been one of the best teams to take the over with this year. Nine of its 12 games have finished over the total despite the team ranking in the middle of the pack in terms of total offense and total defense. The Aggies were good away from home this season, going 3-1 against non-power conference opponents and were a point away from going 4-0 ATS.
Player to Watch
New Mexico State’s offense revolves around one man, quarterback Tyler Rogers. The Aggies have the nation’s fourth-best passing attack thanks to Rogers’ play. He knows that the team needs him to play well to win, so he has adopted a true gunslinger mentality.
Rogers was tied with two other players for most interceptions thrown this season. He tossed 16 picks in 11 games, but that didn’t cause Doug Martin to panic and tell him to not take as many chances. Rogers was one of just three quarterbacks to throw at least 500 passes in the regular season and continued to air it out nonetheless.
He has a touch that other quarterbacks just don’t have and is pretty accurate considering his receivers don’t get much separation. This season, he posted his highest completion percentage yet, completing 62.3 percent of his passes.
Matchup to Watch
There was nothing special about Utah State’s offense this season. After middling results from senior QB Kent Myers, the team decided to go with freshman Jordan Love to try to jump start the unit.
The move was a smart one in that the team hasn’t really lost anything by switching to Love. He isn’t as accurate, but he has a higher yards per attempt average and he is a slightly better runner too.
Love’s two best games of the season came against two of the worst pass defenses in the country. He was able to air it our against UNLV and Air Force, but didn’t crack 175 yards through the air against any other opponent this year.
Free ATS Pick
There has been some crazy line movement in this game. New Mexico State opened as a field goal favorite, but the line has swung the opposite way. Now, Utah State is a four-point favorite in this one although there don’t seem to be any major injuries.
This time of the year a swing like that typically indicates that someone knows something. Go ahead and follow the line movement and lay the points with Utah State here.
College Football Odds: Utah State 34, New Mexico State 23
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