College Football ATS Picks - Arkansas at Alabama Game Preview

2017-NCAAF-Arkansas-at-Alabama_preview-Bet-Online

The Alabama Crimson Tide have not lost to the Arkansas Razorbacks since 2007 and would like to keep that streak going this year. Alabama is a huge favorite against Arkansas, just like it would be against almost any team in the nation. The Crimson Tide have perhaps the most formidable defense in the country, and an offense that is good at slowly racking up the yards and churning out the clock. It’s a model that Bret Bielema has tried to emulate at Arkansas without nearly the success.

Kickoff for this regular season Week 7 game is set for Saturday, October 14, 2017, at 7:15 p.m.

ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

Arkansas +31
Alabama -31
Over/Under Check Back Later

Odds Analysis

Alabama blew out its first two SEC opponents by a combined score of 125-3 before facing a real test in Kyle Field last week. It never felt like the Crimson Tide were going to lose, but Alabama wasn’t able to muster the offense it had in previous weeks against Texas A&M’s defense. The Crimson Tide failed to cover and moved to 3-3 ATS on the year.

Bielema might not be in Fayetteville much longer after the Razorbacks’ performances this season. Arkansas got hammered by South Carolina last week, with the Gamecocks scoring three defensive touchdowns in an easy victory. The loss moved the team to 2-3 this season with their only two wins coming against Florida A&M and New Mexico State.

Bielema is just 27-29 during his tenure at Arkansas, and a horrid 10-24 in SEC play. Arkansas plays Alabama and Auburn these next two weeks, and if the Razorbacks can’t pull off an upset in either, Bielema might be fired by the end of October.

Last Meeting

For what it’s worth, the Razorbacks have played the Crimson Tide tough over the last few seasons. Arkansas almost knocked off Alabama back in 2014, and gave them a scare the last time they met in Tuscaloosa.

Last season’s edition was a little more one-sided than normal, but Arkansas still had success against Alabama. Austin Allen had a relatively successful day through the air against this defense, throwing for 400 yards and three touchdowns in leading the Razorbacks to 30 points. He did throw three interceptions, but some give and take is expected when you’re a gunslinger against this defense.

This was one of the first times that we got to see Jalen Hurts featured as a passer too. Hurts completed 76.5 percent of his passes and registered his highest quarterback rating of the season. He might have even more success and register his second 300-yard passing game in this one.

Key Stat

Arkansas has not been nearly as effective as it wants to be running the football this season. The Razorbacks are averaging just 4.5 yards per carry, and couldn’t establish the run in big losses to TCU and South Carolina. This offensive line just doesn’t seem to be as good as ones in years past and that has meant Austin Allen is having to deal with more men dropping back into coverage. Allen thrived off of play action last season, but has not been able to get the same returns this year without a competent run game.

Free ATS Pick

This one might be shaking out to be another blowout, but I think that the Razorbacks find a way to stay within the number here. Alabama’s schedule is backloaded with the tougher teams in the SEC West yet to come, and the Crimson Tide probably already have an eye on Tennessee next week. Arkansas stands no chance of going into Tuscaloosa and winning, but 31 points is a lot to cover and Alabama will be content to grind out a convincing win.

College Football Odds: Alabama 30, Arkansas 10

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