An impressive three-game stretch for the LSU Tigers was halted last time out when they fell to Alabama. LSU is 6-3 on the season and out of the College Football Playoff conversation but hopes to play well down the stretch to get selected to a prestigious bowl game. The Tigers shouldn’t have much trouble in Week 11 when they host the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Arkansas played pretty well in its non-conference slate but has struggled in SEC action. This is a tough matchup in a hostile environment and the Razorbacks’ defense must be much better than it has shown this season in order to have a chance at keeping this matchup within striking distance.
Arkansas is in danger of missing a bowl game and this would be a huge upset win that would catapult it there, but it’s unlikely to happen.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 11 game is set for Saturday, November 11, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at Tiger Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Arkansas +16.5
LSU -16.5
Over/Under 56
Odds Analysis
The Tigers don’t score a bunch of points, so this is a pretty risky spread since it is so large for a conference game. Despite that, more than 63 percent of the money is coming in on LSU to cover.
The scoring total is pretty high as Arkansas has trouble on defense. The “over” is the more popular pick with more than 83 percent of the money heading that way. LSU is -800 to win this game on the moneyline while Arkansas is the +562 underdog.
The Razorbacks are getting the vast majority of the money on the moneyline as it would be a nice payout if the upset happened.
Player To Watch
Danny Etling -- The LSU quarterback has been a starter all season, but was pulled in the fourth quarter against the Crimson Tide as the team couldn’t get much going in the 24-10 loss. Freshman Myles Brennan took his place but coach Ed Orgeron said he is going back to Etling in this game.
The senior was 12-of-26 for 137 yards with no touchdowns and an interception against Alabama but this will be a much easier matchup. Arkansas is allowing 36.1 points per game and more than 422 yards of total offense.
Etling has thrown for 1,589 yards with nine touchdowns against only two interceptions on the year, so while he hasn’t been especially prolific, he hasn’t turned the ball over a lot. Etling may leave something to be desired when it comes to slinging the ball all over the yard, but he should do enough in this one to help lead LSU to the win.
Key Stat
28.3. That’s the average margin of defeat in Arkansas’ three games against ranked opponents this season. That’s not a good sign as it heads into this matchup against No. 24 LSU.
The Razorbacks’ first matchup with a ranked team came in their second game of the season against No. 23 TCU. Arkansas was never in that one and fell 28-7.
Their second game against a ranked team came against top-ranked Alabama, and Arkansas lost by a score of 41-9. In the most recent game against a ranked team, Arkansas was defeated by No. 21 Auburn by a score of 52-20.
Arkansas has won two straight games heading into this one but the competition ramps up against a ranked opponent, and that’s a troubling development.
Free ATS Pick
LSU’s offense hasn’t been overpowering this season but should get some big plays in this one. The spread, though, is high and will be tough to cover. Arkansas has a decent offense and should be able to score enough to keep this one within a reasonable margin.
Take LSU to win but the Razorbacks will cover the spread. The “under” is the call on the scoring total.
College Football Odds: LSU 34, Arkansas 20
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