College Football ATS Picks - Arkansas State at Georgia Southern Game Preview

The Arkansas State Red Wolves were considered one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt at the start of the season. They have yet to play a conference game, but are likely still one of the favorites despite being 1-2. This team almost knocked off Nebraska in Lincoln in its season opener and hammered Arkansas-Pine Bluff. The Red Wolves will open their conference slate this week against the lowly Georgia Southern Eagles, who look like one of the worst teams in all of FBS through the first month of the season.

Watch this regular season Week 6 matchup live on Wednesday, October 4, 2017, at 8 p.m. ET at Paulson Stadium in Statesboro, Georgia. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

Odds Analysis

The Red Wolves were able to cover their season opener against Nebraska, but have failed to put money in the pockets of their bettors in their last two games. Arkansas State was a massive favorite over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, but failed to cover despite winning 48-3. Last week against SMU, they were slight 2.5-point underdogs and didn’t come close to covering in a 44-21 loss.

Georgia Southern has been terrible through its first three games. Although getting blown out by Auburn was expected, a loss to New Hampshire was a signal that this team had still not turned the corner under head coach Tyson Summers. That point was hammered home even more last week when the Eagles lost by 35 points to Indiana and never were in the game.

Key Injury

If Justice Hansen can’t play, the Red Wolves may be in trouble in this one. The Red Wolves offense relies on him to move the chains with his arm, but he was hurt in the second quarter of the game against SMU and Arkansas State couldn’t move the ball without him.

Hansen has been great this season. He had been carving up the Mustangs defense all day before the injury, and has already thrown for 985 yards and 10 touchdowns in just two and a half games of action this year.

Head coach Blake Anderson described the injury as a strained muscle and he is still considered questionable to play in this one. Hansen’s availability is the reason that this game remains off the board at BookMaker and other sportsbooks.

Matchup to Watch

Perhaps the biggest indicator of how far Georgia Southern has fallen under Summers is its inability to run the ball. The Eagles boasted one of the nation’s best running games under their former coach, but have been unable to find their way since Summers took over at the start of 2016.

The Eagles have averaged just 3.41 yards per carry and have only one rushing touchdown this season. Those numbers are terrible when you consider that this team’s gameplan revolves around being able to run the football. Despite getting blown out in two of their three games, they have still run the ball on over 75 percent of their plays from scrimmage.

Fortunately for the Eagles, the Red Wolves don’t have a great run defense, allowing almost 200 yards on the ground per game. That number puts them outside the top 100 in terms of rushing defense.

Free ATS Pick

If it looks like Hansen will play, Arkansas State should be a double-digit favorite in this one. The Red Wolves have been great with him in the lineup and will be able to throw the ball all over the Eagles defense.

Things become more complicated if Hansen can’t suit up. Backup Logan Bonner completed just 7 of 17 passes for 50 yards in his stead. That would give Georgia Southern a real shot to put one in the win column in front of its home crowd.

College Football Odds: Arkansas State 37, Georgia Southern 16

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