The Army Black Knights have had their most successful season in two decades and are looking to win 10 games for just the second time in school history. Army is sitting at 9-3 and only one of the losses was uncompetitive, a 38-7 drubbing at the hands of Ohio State.
To get to win number 10, Army will need to get past the San Diego State Aztecs. The Aztecs are led by Rashaad Penny, who ran for over 2,000 yards and was just named a First Team All-American by the Associated Press.
Watch the Armed Forces Bowl live on Saturday, December 23, 2017, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Diego State -7
Army +7
Over/Under 46.5
Odds Analysis
Army may be 9-3, but the Black Knights didn’t play the toughest schedule to get there. The Black Knights failed to register a win over a team with a winning record all season, beating a few 6-6 and worse teams to get bowl eligible. They were 6-6 ATS, but were underdogs in each of their last four and won three of those games outright. Under cashed in three of Army’s last four games and the Black Knights were 5-2 in one score games this year.
The Aztecs started off the season strong and looked like they might earn a New Year’s Day bowl bid after knocking off Arizona State, Stanford, and Northern Illinois in non-conference play. Unfortunately, losses to Boise State and Fresno State in back-to-back weeks ended that dream. San Diego State did finish the year on a high note, blasting four straight MWC opponents following the loss to end up 10-2. The Aztecs covered in all four of those games.
Player to Watch
For the second straight season, San Diego State has a 2,000-yard rusher. Penny picked up right where Donnel Pumphrey left off and will surpass Pumphrey’s numbers from last season with 107 rushing yards in the bowl game.
It’s been a banner year for Penny who has patiently waited behind Pumphrey for his opportunity to shine. He has taken full advantage of the opportunity and has become the workhorse that Rocky Long loves to have in his offenses.
He is currently averaging 7.4 yards per carry and the only back in the country over 2,000 yards. Perry finished the season strong with over 200 yards and at least two touchdowns in each of his last four games, however, this offense was pretty toothless if you could shut him down. Both Boise State and Fresno State held him to under 70 yards and the Aztecs couldn’t move the ball when he wasn’t gashing teams.
Matchup to Watch
There’s no secret to what Army is going to try to do in this game. The Black Knights are going to try to move the ball on the Aztecs with their triple option attack. Unfortunately, San Diego State has one of the best run defenses in the country.
The Aztecs are limiting opponents to just 3.5 yards per carry and they have a top ten run defense in the nation in terms of yards allowed. Additionally, they have already faced two teams that run the ball with the option in Air Force and New Mexico and shut down those run games pretty easily.
Free ATS Pick
It’s going to be hard for Army to win this one and the Black Knights should be more of an underdog. This will be the second-best defense they have faced this season and Long’s units are known for their discipline. With ample time to prepare for the triple option, and having gone up against it already, I don’t see Army getting much done. San Diego State will waltz to an easy victory here.
College Football Odds: San Diego State 27, Army 10
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