Army comes into this matchup with a record of 8-3, and looking to get back in the winning column after falling to North Texas last week. Navy opened the season with five straight wins but has gone 1-5 in its last six games. The Black Knights have put together a nice season but are still the slight underdogs in this matchup.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 16 game is set for Saturday, December 9, 2017, at 3 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Army +3.5
Navy -3.5
Over/Under 48
Odds Analysis
Army has an intriguing spread, as losing by a field goal or less would result in a cover. Not surprisingly, the Black Knights are getting about 64 percent of the money to cover at this point.
The scoring total is pretty low for a college football game, but it’s not a big surprise considering that both of these squads are run-oriented. The “under” is the more popular play, with more than 75 percent of the money headed that way, as bettors expect a low-scoring affair.
Last Meeting
After more than a decade of domination from the Midshipmen, Army defeated Navy 21-17 in the 2016 meeting. The victory ended the longest winning streak in the history of the rivalry, which began in 1890.
The Black Knights rushed for 316 yards in the victory, building an early lead and never looking back. Zach Abey was 6-of-10 for 89 yards with two interceptions in the loss, torpedoing his team’s chances with the poor performance through the air.
Navy leads Army in the rivalry 60-50-7 all-time and will be eager to get back on top this season. The last three meetings between these two teams have been decided by a touchdown or less and fans could be looking at another tight one this year.
Player To Watch
Zach Abey — Navy’s dual-threat quarterback does most of his damage on the ground. He is the team’s leading rusher with 1,322 yards and 14 touchdowns. Containing him in this contest will be a key for the Army’s defense. The Black Knights would love for him to throw the ball, as they showed last year that they are able to pick him off when given the opportunity.
Abey gets some help in the backfield from Malcolm Perry who has rushed for 818 yards and eight touchdowns. He averages a robust 8.9 yards a carry.
Abey isn’t quite as reliable in the air with the Midshipmen averaging 91.2 passing yards a game. He is 30-of-70 passing for 803 yards with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Free ATS Pick
Army might be slightly inferior to Navy this season, but not to the point where the spread would indicate. By all accounts these two teams seem pretty evenly-matched. In those cases, it is a much better idea to take the points.
The Midshipmen have enough experience to secure this victory, but it might not come until the final seconds. Abey should bounce back and have a much stronger game than last year, and by limiting turnovers he will give his team a better shot at the win.
Army is not going to win this game but it is the choice to get the cover. The “over” is the choice on the scoring total as each team should come up with enough big plays for the scoring to finish higher than expected. Fumbles happen a decent amount with so many carries, and a few key recoveries could really put the offenses in advantageous field position.
College Football Odds: Navy 27, Army 24
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