College Football ATS Picks - Ball State at Illinois Game Preview

There always seems to be a notable upset or two of a big college program by a smaller one early in the non-conference season. While the Illinois FIghting Illini isn’t exactly a top-tier program, the Ball State Cardinals would love to go on the road in the regular season opener and pull off the upset.

Illinois had some trouble offensively a year ago but has more upside in 2017. It will need to be hit, because the defense may take a step back. If the Fighting Illini can’t score a lot of points in this game, Ball State could make things very interesting. This will be an intriguing matchup of two teams pretty close geographically.

Kickoff for this regular season Week 1 game is set for Saturday, September 2, 2017 at 12 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium.

NCAA Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

Ball State +7
Illinois -7
Over/Under 58

Odds Analysis

Illinois isn’t a huge favorite in this one, but the betting public believes the Fighting Illini will cover, as 72 percent of the early action is heading that way. The “under” is the much more popular pick, as the bettors don’t think the offenses can get rolling enough to push the total high enough.

Ball State is +218 on the moneyline, and more of the wagers are coming in on Illinois, which is currently -265 to win this game. The Fighting Illini is the bigger program and plays at home, but don’t discount the possibility of an upset.

Player to Watch

James Gilbert -- Why should Illinois possibly be on upset alert? Ball State’s star running back is one big reason why. He had 251 carries for 1,332 yards with 12 touchdowns a season ago for a yards-per-carry average of 5.3.

Gilbert isn’t a receiving threat, but each time he gets a handoff he has a chance to be a difference-maker. Illinois was decent on defense a season ago but not great, and Hardy Nickerson, Jr. has now departed, as has the defensive line.

If Gilbert can break off a few big runs and generally control the game with his ability, Ball State should be able to stick around for the entirety of this contest.

Key Stat

19.7. That’s the number of points Illinois averaged last season, which clearly needs to improve if this team has any chance of reaching bowl eligibility in 2017. While the stats weren’t good a year ago, there is reason to believe in a turnaround.

Kendrick Foster showed some things once he started getting the ball regularly, finishing with 126 carries for 720 yards and seven touchdowns for a 5.7 yards-per-carry average. Wide receiver Mike Dudek has missed the past two seasons due to ACL tears but hopes to return and make an impact in 2017.

The Illini’s fortunes will likely come down to quarterback play. Wes Lunt is gone but he was never that good anyway. Chayce Crouch is now taking over because highly-touted transfer Dwayne Lawson didn’t make it to campus. Crouch is a dual threat who has some nice experience as the backup and hopes to turn around the team’s fortunes.

Free ATS Pick

Ball State went just 4-8 last season, so it’s weird to think of it as a possible upset candidate against a Big Ten foe, but it’s a possibility. The Cardinals have a lot of key players back and should be better this year, while the Fighting Illini have some issues on both sides of the ball after going just 3-9 a season ago.

The home field advantage is key and Illinois has the stronger personnel overall, but a few big plays by Ball State could result in a surprising outcome to begin the year. The price is right to not only choose the Cardinals to cover the spread but win this game as well.

College Football Odds: Ball State 28, Illinois 27

BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!