The Baylor Bears might not be back, but at least they have some teeth again. Baylor pushed Oklahoma to the brink on Saturday night in Waco and almost put a big ol’ boot in Baker Mayfield’s mouth. Matt Rhule’s bunch will now look to get in the win column on Saturday afternoon when they take on the Kansas State Wildcats in the Little Apple. Kansas State is once again looking to be a decent Big 12 team and a win for Rhule would be big for momentum.
Watch this regular season Week 5 matchup live on Saturday, September 30, 2017, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas. This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Baylor +17
Kansas State -17
Over/Under 59
Odds Analysis
The Bears might be the worst Power Five team in college football this year. Baylor was a double-digit underdog in its first two games and ended up losing both outright. The loss to UTSA was bad enough even though the Roadrunners are an up and coming team. The real heartbreaker though was a loss to Liberty in one of its first games against an FBS foe. Baylor’s performance against Oklahoma showed some heart and got the team its first cover.
Kansas State was off last week after losing to Vanderbilt in its final game on the non-conference schedule. The Wildcats had covered their first two games this year, but weren’t able to cover against the Commodores and actually suffered an outright loss. Over is 2-1 in Kansas State games this year.
Key Stat
The Wildcats are one of the better defenses in the nation statistically speaking. However, they have played some pretty poor competition and aren’t as good as they seem right now. The best offense this team has faced is Vanderbilt, and the Commodores aren’t that good at all when it comes to putting points on the board.
Baylor can at least put points on the board. The Bears are undergoing an overhaul under Matt Rhule, but this team has proven it can score on most defenses still. This team was able to move the ball on Oklahoma’s defense and that means they are still having some success.
Coaching Angle
Rhule inherited a total mess at Baylor, but was richly rewarded for it. He signed a massive seven-year deal when he got to Waco and has a huge buyout too.
This season started off rough for the Bears, but that’s to be expected. This team lost virtually all of its best recruits from 2015 and 2016 following the scandal and the 2017 class didn’t see much as Rhule was only in town for a month or two prior to National Signing Day.
Rather than use the wide open, air attack that defined Baylor when it was good, Rhule is moving to a slow, ground and pound style of offense. That’s what made him successful at Temple, but it’s different than anything we have in the Big 12 at the moment. Whether it works or not, at least it will be different.
Free ATS Pick
Bill Snyder has seen it all during his time in Manhattan. The long-time head coach knows the style of offense that Rhule wants to run and how best to run it.
Giving a veteran like Snyder an extra week of film to study before a game like this is a big advantage. Kansas State got to use the extra week to see what Rhule and his people want to do and now has counters ready for it.
The Bears are going to have a letdown this week. That’s what young teams do when they are learning how to win and that will lead to a big victory for Kansas State that leads to Baylor being undervalued.
College Football Odds: Kansas State 41, Baylor 20
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