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The TCU Horned Frogs just have to knock off the lowly Baylor Bears in order to earn a rematch with the Oklahoma Sooners for the Big 12 title. TCU is the only two-loss team in the conference and sits all alone in second place after Oklahoma State lost to Kansas State last week. This team has played very well at home all season long and dominated every foe but West Virginia.
Watch this regular season Week 13 matchup live on Friday, November 24, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. This game will be broadcast on FS1.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Baylor +23.5
TCU -23.5
Odds Analysis
Defense has been the motif for the Horned Frogs this season. Whereas the other teams in the Big 12 try to air it out in order to win games, Gary Patterson has typically relied on a strong defense to pull out victories. TCU is one of two teams to hold six or more opponents under 10 points this season and only the elite offenses have been able to put up points against this team. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that the under is 9-2 in TCU games this season.
Things have not gone well for Matt Rhule in his first year on the job at Baylor. The Bears are sitting at 1-10 and their lone win all season was against a terrible Kansas team. Baylor has looked better in recent weeks though, only losing by 14 to Texas Tech and by 10 to Iowa State.
Key Injury
Kenny Hill was unable to play against Texas Tech last week after suffering a concussion late in the Horned Frogs loss to Oklahoma two weeks prior. Hill had been solid for TCU all season and it was unclear how backup Shawn Robinson would do in his stead.
Sonny Cumbie called a conservative gameplan that took the air out of the ball as a result. It ended up with TCU winning 27-3 on the back of a strong ground game and a good defense. Robinson went just 6-17 for 85 yards and looked uncomfortable when he was taxed to throw the ball. However, he was a solid runner, picking up 84 yards with his legs against the Red Raiders defense.
It’s unclear who will start at quarterback, but we’d bet it is Hill now that he has had a week to recover. Although it is a short week, concussions rarely keep players out more than one week and TCU needs Hill.
Matchup to Watch
Baylor has had a hard time establishing an offensive identity under Rhule. Even last year under Jim Grobe, the Bears were lighting up teams in the running game and the passing game, but the defense was letting the school down.
This season, the Bears have been unable to run the ball well and have been marginal through the air. Baylor is averaging a woeful 3.4 yards per carry as Rhule tries to turn this former Air Raid offense into something more traditional.
The one glimmer of hope on the offense has been receiver Denzel Mims. Mims is over 1,000 receiving yards and has eight touchdowns too. He has made plays no matter who is throwing him the ball and has come up huge in big games, going off against Oklahoma, Kansas State, and West Virginia.
Mims is the main player that TCU will need to stop.
Free ATS Pick
As much as I want to take the points, there isn’t a real good reason to back Baylor here. TCU is going to keep the Bears off the scoreboard and its offense will be able to slowly grind down this defense. It may be close for a half, but TCU will pull away.
College Football Odds: TCU 38, Baylor 7
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