Charlie Strong had a pretty successful season in his first year as head coach of the South Florida Bulls. South Florida had been one of the rising stars in the AAC under Willie Taggart and Strong was able to keep the momentum going with a 9-2 record. Now, he will attempt to lead the Bulls to their second straight season with 10 or more wins. They will need to beat Kliff Kingsbury’s Texas Tech Red Raiders in order to get there.
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College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
South Florida -2.5
Texas Tech +2.5
Over/Under 67
Odds Analysis
South Florida was favored in every game by at least 10 points save for its season finale against arch rival UCF. The Bulls had a hard time covering those spreads though, posting a 4-6 ATS mark when they were favored. This offense wasn’t as good as anticipated and that led to the under posting a mark of 7-4.
Texas Tech needed to upset Texas in its season finale in order to get bowl eligible and was able to do just that. It’s a good thing for Kingsbury too, as he might have been on the chopping block had they not won that game.
The Red Raiders looked great in non-conference play, winning all three games and scoring wins over Arizona State and Houston. However, Texas Tech wasn’t very competitive in conference play. This team started the season with five straight covers, but then failed to cover five of its last seven games. Under was 8-4 in Texas Tech tilts this year.
Player to Watch
Quinton Flowers has not put up the numbers he did as a junior in 2017, but showcased why he is one of the most exciting players in the country in South Florida’s wild loss to UCF.
Flowers was simply unstoppable against the Knights. He continually made play after play even with the pocket collapsing around him and UCF bringing pressure. Flowers threw for over 500 yards and four touchdowns against the Knights defense and ran for over 100 with a TD as well.
It was a wonderful performance and what we had hoped to see more of this year. It took Flowers some time to adjust to his new coaching staff, yet when he did he was back to his old self. He threw for over 300 yards in three of his last four games and surpassed the 100-yard mark on the ground in three of those last four as well.
Matchup to Watch
For the last 15 years, no team has aired it out more than Texas Tech. The Red Raiders became synonymous with, and helped popularize, the Air Raid offense and have thrown it all over the place under Mike Leach and Kingsbury.
Without Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech’s offensive numbers took a dip this year. Nic Shimonek had a perfectly respectable season, throwing for over 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns with only eight interceptions. He led the Red Raiders come from behind victory over Texas after being benched for his performance the week before against TCU too.
South Florida was pretty good against the pass this year, its performance against UCF an exception. The Bulls limited opponents to just 6.3 yards per attempt this season and Strong has experience against Texas Tech from his time at Texas. However, Mahomes did tear up Texas in 2015 and 2016.
Free ATS Pick
For the first time in a while, Texas Tech had a defense that wasn’t that bad this season. The Red Raiders actually slowed down some offenses and weren’t just a traffic light and that is why this total isn’t in the 70s or even higher. That’s also why I think they pull off the upset.
College Football Odds: Texas Tech 38, South Florida 34
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