College Football ATS Picks - Bowling Green at Michigan State Game Preview

The Michigan State Spartans face-planted in 2016, stumbling to a 3-9 record after years of being in the mix in the Big Ten. They are hoping for a quick turnaround this season to prove that was just a fluke. Michigan State shouldn’t have any trouble getting off to a fast start in the regular season opener against the Bowling Green Falcons.

The Spartans have some questions in their passing game but have a strong ground attack which should be plenty to knock off Bowling Green. Michigan State will truly learn what kind of season is on the horizon once it gets into conference play, but there could be some things of note to take away from this contest.

Kickoff for this regular season Week 1 game is set for Saturday, September 2, 2017 at Spartan Stadium.

NCAA Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

Bowling Green +17
Michigan State -17
Over/Under 56.5

Odds Analysis

This is the type of spread in which Michigan State will need to play well to cover. The bettors see it happening, as approximately two-thirds of the early money is coming in on the Spartans to win by more than 17 points.

The scoring total might be a little bit low if the early wagering is any indication, with the majority of the money hitting the “over.” Michigan State is a heavy -1100 favorite on the moneyline, as oddsmakers don’t see much chance of an upset. If it happens, Bowling Green would play out handsomely at +711.

Player to Watch

L.J. Scott -- Michigan State averaged only 24.5 points per game a season ago and will need to replace quarterback Tyler O’Connor. If the Spartans are going to improve offensively this season, it seems like it will be the running game that leads the way.

While multiple backs should get a slice of the pie, Scott should see the most carries. He rushed for 994 yards on 184 carries a season ago, scoring six touchdowns. He also added 10 receptions for 147 yards and may be able to become a bigger receiving threat in 2017.

Michigan State has a stellar offensive line and it should be able to pave sizable holes for Scott against Bowling Green. If he dominates early on, it will wear out the Falcons defense and Michigan State may be able to run away with this one.

Key Stat

38.3. That’s how many points per game Bowling Green gave up last season, which was among the worst in the nation. The Falcons allowed 464.3 yards per game, as their biggest issue came in the secondary, where injuries and a lack of high-end talent took its toll.

Bowling Green needs defensive backs like Robert Jackson, Clint Stephens and Cameron Jeffries to step up or it’s going to be another long season. Even though Michigan State isn’t particularly explosive offensively, it will pile up the points if the Falcons are similar to what they were defensively a season ago.

Ohio State and Memphis each scored 77 points on Bowling Green a season ago, and the Spartans hope to roll to an easy win.

Free ATS Pick

This spread seems too low, as Michigan State certainly struggled a season ago but is still the clearly superior team playing at home. The Spartans have to figure out if they have a decent quarterback but won’t really need much of one to blow out Bowling Green.

The Falcons feel like their defense will be revamped in 2017 but optimism flows from everyone before the season. This will be the true test to see if any improvements have been made. Expect Michigan State to race out to a big lead and coast home.

The Spartans are going to cover this spread and the scoring total should go “over” unless the Bowling Green offense completely sputters.

College Football Odds: Michigan State 41, Bowling Green 17

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