College Football ATS Picks - BYU vs. LSU Game Preview

On Tuesday, it was announced that the Advocare Texas Kickoff between the LSU Tigers and the BYU Cougars was switching venues. The devastation wrought by Hurricane Harvey made NRG Stadium in Houston an untenable location for the game, so officials decided to host the game in New Orleans instead. Refunds were issued to everyone who initially bought tickets and new tickets will go on sale starting on Wednesday. That should lead to a very pro-LSU crowd.

This contest in Week 1 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 2, 2017, at 9:30

p.m. ET at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

BYU +16
LSU -16
Over/Under 48

Odds Analysis

As a result of the move, this line has moved dramatically. LSU opened up has a 10.5-point favorite back in May and the line slowly creeped up to 12.5 throughout the offseason. The announcement that the game was being moved sparked a massive bump as it is now practically an LSU home game.

While LSU has yet to play, we saw BYU in action last week and the Cougars did not look good against Portland State. Their FCS opponent went 3-8 last season and was starting a true freshman at quarterback, but BYU could only manage a 20-6 victory in its opening game. That does not bode well for them entering this game.

Matchup to Watch

BYU’s receivers looked really bad last week. The Cougars receivers were unable to get off the line against Portland State’s tall, physical cornerbacks and were pushed around for most of the game. Although the numbers don’t look bad if you just look at the stat sheet, BYU’s two biggest pass plays were the result of jump balls that quarterback Tanner Mangum threw up for grabs.

That was a problem for the Cougars last year too. BYU had trouble getting its passing game going against teams that ran a lot of man-press coverage. Head coach Kalani Sitake had said this had been fixed in the offseason, but it didn’t look like it through one game.

If the Cougars’ receivers struggled against Portland State’s cornerbacks, they are going to be in a world of hurt against this secondary. LSU has some of the most physical corners in the country and they attack non-stop. They are going to ride BYU’s receivers as much as possible and if they can’t get open, Mangum is in for a long day.

Coaching Angle

LSU is hopeful that it finally fixed the offensive woes that have plagued them in recent years with the addition of offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Canada has turned around offenses at multiple schools over the last decade and helped turn Nathan Peterman into an NFL draft pick.

That has the fanbase optimistic that Danny Etling can make a similar jump as a senior. Etling was alright as the starter last season, but struggled to move the ball against the better defenses he faced. He is coming off of back surgery this offseason, so his durability is a question. Etling has extremely talented receivers and a great young running back in Derrius Guice, so the only missing piece at the skill positions is quarterback.

Free ATS Pick

The one area where BYU might have a big advantage is along its defensive line. Injuries have taken their toll on LSU’s offensive line and the Cougars have some really talented players on the defensive front. Sione Takitaki was a beast against Portland State in the opener and plays above his weight.

LSU hasn’t been great in season openers. The Tigers haven’t covered in three straight openers and lost outright as a double-digit favorite against Wisconsin last season. However, we love what head coach Ed Orgeron is doing at LSU. He is following the Dabo Swinney model of taking a step back as a head coach and finding the best coordinators available on both sides of the ball. His ability to get Canada and keep defensive coordinator Dave Aranda was huge. Look for the team to respond with a win and cover here, but wait to bet on the Tigers as the line should fall closer to kickoff.

College Football Odds: Tigers 34, Cougars 13

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