Cal has been better than expected early on, beating North Carolina and Mississippi among its non-conference wins and then hanging tough against USC last time out. The Bears are also 0-1 in Pac-12 play and an upset win here would be a huge step toward bowl eligibility.
This matchup in Week 5 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, September 30, 2017, at 10:30 p.m. ET at Autzen Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
California +13.5
Oregon -13.5
Over/Under 68
Odds Analysis
The Bears are nearly two-touchdown underdogs, and the bettors believe that spread is too high, as nearly 75 percent of the money is on Cal to cover. The scoring total is pretty high but not in the stratosphere that some Ducks games are, and the “over” is the resounding choice for the majority of bettors.
Cal is a +397 underdog on the moneyline, while Oregon is listed at -520 to win this game outright. The Bears are the more popular choice on the moneyline.
Player to Watch
Royce Freeman – The senior running back is the Ducks go-to guy out of the backfield and has rushed for
541 yards and 10 touchdowns in the first four games this season. He started the season with three straight games of 150 rushing yards or more.
Despite being held to just 81 yards last week in the loss to Arizona State, Freeman broke Oregon’s school record for most rushing touchdowns in a career with 54. He is now five touchdowns away from breaking the Pac-12 record for touchdowns in a career currently held by former Oregon State running back Ken Simonton.
Freeman is averaging 5.6 yards a carry. He will look to continue his electric start to his senior campaign against the Golden Bears this week. Cal is only giving up 136 yards per game on the ground this season, so it should be an interesting matchup.
Scheduling Situation
This is a tough stretch of games for Cal, which started the season at 3-0. The Golden Bears’ first loss of the season came to No. 3 USC last week and, after taking on a tough Oregon team this week, they will face two more ranked opponents in the next two weeks.
Cal will remain on the road to play No. 6 Washington on October 7th before returning home to square off with No. 16 Washington State on October 13th. The team will most likely be the underdog in all of these matchups and must attempt to pull off an upset to avoid four straight losses over this stretch.
This isn’t a great matchup and playing on the road is tough, but Cal has shown the ability to play well against top competition this year.
ATS Picks
Oregon had a bump in the road last time out, but the numbers from its first four games are still impressive. The Ducks’ program went into a lull after Chip Kelly left but now seems back to form, and a win here could get them back into the national rankings.
Washington is now a game ahead of Oregon in the Pac-12 North, and that could be the team to beat. The Ducks want to stay within striking distance of the Huskies. Cal isn’t quite talented enough to win this game, but expect the Bears to hang around enough to cover this spread.
Take the “over” in this game as there is going to be a bunch of big plays for both teams.
College Football Odds: Oregon 41, California 31
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