The South Florida Bulls have put a slow start behind them and have looked very good over the last few weeks. South Florida struggled to put away both San Jose State and Stony Brook, but is humming under new head coach Charlie Strong. The Bulls have waxed three straight opponents and are on a collision course to battle UCF for the AAC East title. Oddsmakers are expecting another big performance from South Florida on Saturday night, when it hosts the Cincinnati Bearcats.
This matchup in Week 7 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 14, 2017, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. This game will be broadcast on ESPNU.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cincinnati +24.5
South Florida -24.5
Odds Analysis
Cincinnati has not looked good this year. The Bearcats struggled with Austin Peay in their opener, and have only defeated one FBS opponent this season, Miami of Ohio. Since starting conference play, things have gone from bad to worse for the Bearcats. They are 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS, and the defense is allowing 43 PPG to conference foes.
South Florida just keeps on winning games. Charlie Strong has given this defense a shot in the arm, and the offense is starting to roll. The Bulls have scored at least 42 points against every FBS opponent they have faced, and have won each of those games by at least 20 points. Unsurprisingly, the Bulls have only failed to cover one of those games and have been the winning side for three in a row.
Key Stat
No team has been better at shutting down the run than South Florida this season. The Bulls lead the nation in running defense, giving up just 74.4 rushing yards per game. Some of that is because of how quick their offense jumps on you, but for the most part it’s just the speed that this team has all over the field. That minimizes the impact when the opposing team tries to establish the run.
On the other side of the ball, this is one of the top rushing attacks in the country. Quinton Flowers is a playmaker and his ability to throw the ball, or tuck it or run, has left defenses grasping at air throughout this young season. The Bulls are averaging 309.2 yards per game on the ground, a number that is fifth-highest in the country.
Player to Watch
Hayden Moore has not performed that well as Cincinnati’s quarterback this season. Moore is completing just 53.3 percent of his passes, in spite of the fact that he is averaging just 5.7 yards per throw. That’s not a good combination considering he is throwing a lot of underneath routes.
To his credit, Moore does not have a good run game. No one has more than 223 yards on the ground for Cincinnati this year, and none of the three top rushers are averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry.
Moore has been up and down during his time at Cincinnati. He throws quite a few interceptions, but he has pulled out some gutsy wins too for this team. If Cincy ends up pulling off the upset, it will likely be because of Moore’s arm.
Free ATS Pick
This South Florida team is going to keep winning games for a while longer. The toughest test the Bulls have before UCF is a home game against Houston, but will likely be a decent-sized favorite in that one.
Strong may not want to embarrass rival coaches, but USF has laughably more talent than any other school on this side of the conference. That leads to big leads and teams unable to do anything but throw the ball on the Bulls. Cincy will keep this within the number, but it will still be a big win.
College Football Odds: South Florida 41, Cincinnati 22
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