The Notre Dame Fighting Irish were one of the best teams in the country for the first two months of the season. Notre Dame started the season 8-1 and looked set to break into the College Football Playoff for the first time. A loss to Miami derailed those hopes, but it was still a successful year for Notre Dame. Now, the Irish will look to finish the year with 10 wins. However, the LSU Tigers are standing in their way and they are looking to get a big bowl win in Ed Orgeron’s first season as the head coach.
Watch the Citrus Bowl live on Monday, January 1, 2018, at 1 p.m. ET at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. This game will be broadcast on ABC.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Notre Dame +3
LSU -3
Over/Under 51.5
Odds Analysis
Notre Dame was a ball of fire at the start of the season. The offense was electric, and Josh Adams had worked himself into the Heisman Trophy conversation after torching USC in mid-October. The Fighting Irish were 7-1 ATS in their first eight games, dominating everyone except Georgia. However, the offense was slowed down at the end of the season and defensive miscues meant that this team finished 0-4 ATS in the month of November.
The Tigers shifted things into another level over the last half of the season. Things looked shaky for Orgeron following a blowout loss at the hands of Mississippi State and a home loss to Troy with talk of him being fired at season’s end. However, LSU’s comeback win over Auburn triggered a resurgence. The Tigers closed out the year covering six straight games.
Key Absences
Each team will be missing some key players in this one, but for entirely different reasons.
Injuries have sidelined two of LSU’s best players during bowl preparations and one of them was just ruled out for this game. Superstar linebacker Arden Key will be missing this game due to a knee injury. Key is one of the most talented linebackers in the country and not having him will hurt. To make matters worse, the team will not have linebackers Corey Thompson or Donnie Alexander available either because of injuries.
Additionally, running back Derrius Guice has still not practiced with the team. Although he is expected to start practicing after Christmas, there is a chance he doesn’t play in this game.
For Notre Dame, off the field issues will cause two of their best pass catchers to miss this one. Tight end Alize Mack was suspended on Thursday for an issue that Brian Kelly wouldn’t discuss, and wide receiver Kevin Stepherson is indefinitely suspended after being accused of shoplifting last week.
Matchup to Watch
Notre Dame would have had a very tough time running against LSU if everyone was healthy. However, now the Irish might be able to have some real success on the ground.
Teams figured out Notre Dame’s ground attack later in the season. Brandon Wimbush wasn’t a great passer, causing teams to commit extra men in the box in order to slow down the run.
Yet this LSU front seven can be run on. Troy, Auburn, and Mississippi State all had success against this run defense. Notre Dame has one of the best offensive lines in the country and it might be able to open some holes.
Free ATS Pick
LSU’s losses for this game are much more significant than Notre Dame’s. Key and Guice might just be the two best players on the team, and not having both of them would be enormous. With a month to prepare, Kelly will be able to put some new wrinkles in this offense that LSU won’t expect. That will help Notre Dame pull off the outright victory over a good LSU team.
College Football Odds: Notre Dame 27, LSU 23
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