The UCF Golden Knights are zeroed in on the Group of Five automatic bid. UCF is the only undefeated mid-major left in the country and knows that the spot is there as long as they win out. The Connecticut Huskies have had an up and down season. Randy Edsall’s return has brought some excitement back to the program, but this team has been pasted a lot this year. Oddsmakers are expecting more of the same as this is the largest spread of the week.
This matchup in Week 11 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 11, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at Spectrum Stadium in Orlando, Florida. This game will be broadcast on ESPNU.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Connecticut +39.5
UCF -39.5
Over/Under 64
Odds Analysis
This spread has continued to climb since it opened earlier in the week at 37. Starting quarterback Bryant Shirreffs was ruled out for this game earlier in the week and backup David Pindell was listed as doubtful with a concussion. However, I expect this spread to fall because late Wednesday night, UConn’s athletic department announced that Pindell will be the starter for the Huskies. He was the starter in the season opener against Holy Cross and was a very good JUCO transfer.
UConn’s last four losses were all blowouts and the team failed to cover the spread in three of the four. However, the Huskies were able to cover against South Florida last week.
The Knights covered each of their first five games of the season in resounding fashion. However, the books have adjusted to their dominance and they have not covered in any of their last three games.
Coaching Angle
Scott Frost has to be at least a little bit distracted right now. Frost is the hottest coach in the country and his name has been linked to Florida and a number of other Power Five schools. At some level, he is probably fielding offers with the help of his agent, but he would never admit as much.
Frost is a great offensive mind, but it’s hard to put everything on the backburner and just focus on the game in a situation like this. He knows he has his pick of four or five jobs and Frost knows that the Knights are going to hammer the Huskies no matter what.
If you’re looking for an example of how this can go wrong, look no further than last year. Tom Herman was the hottest name all year long and was offered both the LSU and Texas job. However, Herman’s Cougars lost three conference games and failed to cover in seven of their last eight.
Matchup to Watch
UConn’s defense is abysmal. If it wasn’t for East Carolina, this would be the worst defense in the country in terms of total yards and it in fact the worst pass defense in the nation. The Huskies have gotten torched by every decent quarterback they have played, and McKenzie Milton has been fantastic for the Knights this season.
Milton has thrived in Frost’s offense and has been able to utilize his mobility and arm to produce devastating results. UCF is scoring more than any other team in the country and has not scored less than 31 points all year long.
Free ATS Pick
This line makes some sense on paper, but the spread is too large when you take into account other factors.
This is a letdown, lookahead game for UCF. The Knights pulled one out last week on the road against SMU and are now looking forward to getting revenge on Temple next week prior to facing their arch-rival USF in the season finale.
Additionally, this game means far more to UConn than it does UCF. Former Huskies coach Bob Diaco made this a rivalry game with a trophy and everything and while he is no longer in Storrs, his players are going to want to keep this respectable.
College Football Odds: UCF 41, Connecticut 17
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