This year, we are going to have a jam-packed slate of college football to celebrate the new year. The New Year’s Six games will kick off early when the Ohio State Buckeyes take on the USC Trojans in Jerry’s World in the suburbs of Dallas. It’s been eight years since these teams last squared off which is a little curious since both have long dominated their conferences and you would have expected they met in a Rose Bowl at some point this decade. The winner of this game will likely finish in the top five of the final AP poll and that will give them something to build on for next season.
Watch the Cotton Bowl live on Friday, December 29, 2017, at 8:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Ohio State -6.5
USC +6.5
Odds Analysis
USC has been one of the worst teams to bet on this season. The Trojans ended up winning the PAC 12 like most predicted they would, but finished eighth in the final CFP rankings because of how they won those games. USC went just 3-9-1 ATS this season and got hammered by 35 points on the road against Notre Dame.
Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes thought they might had done enough to get into the CFP after beating Wisconsin to win the Big Ten, but the committee left them just outside the top four. In the end, Ohio State’s shellacking at the hands of a mediocre Iowa team was just too much of a black eye for the committee to ignore. It was still a successful season for the Buckeyes and the offense was great for much of the year. Over was 9-4 in Ohio State games this year.
Player to Watch
Sam Darnold is seen by many as the No. 1 pick in the draft, but he has yet to make a decision regarding his future. Darnold had some troubles through the first couple months of the season, but caught fire late to help take USC back to a New Year’s Six bowl.
Darnold has the prototypical size that you want in a quarterback. He didn’t always make the best decisions though and that really hurt the Trojans early in the season. Darnold threw nine interceptions through USC’s first six games and looked flustered whenever he was pressured.
He did turn it around late and was sharp against Stanford in the PAC 12 Championship Game, but this Ohio State defense is a beast of its own. Opposing quarterbacks not named Baker Mayfield have had a hard time against this defense and he might have some issues.
Matchup to Watch
Ohio State is going to keep it on the ground as much as it can. It’s been four years and J.T. Barrett still has problems with his accuracy against good defenses. He completed just 15 of 34 passes these last two weeks against Michigan and Wisconsin and threw two interceptions.
However, Barrett is a fantastic runner and that’s what makes this offense so explosive. He was the team’s second-leading rusher and helped this team rack up over 3,200 yards and 32 touchdowns on the ground. As long as he is enough of a threat through the air, Ohio State can usually have a ton of success running the football.
Free ATS Pick
Wait a bit and find out whether or not Darnold will play before betting on this one. If he does decide to come out, he may want to sit out the bowl game and not risk getting injured. That would push Ohio State to be a double-digit favorite here.
Provided Darnold plays, I like the Trojans and the points here. USC has underachieved all year long, but Ohio State is probably going to be more than a little disappointed it didn’t make the playoff. Bowl games are largely about motivation and I see USC having quite a bit if Darnold plays.
College Football Odds: USC 37, Ohio State 31
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