The Toledo Rockets have been the most consistent team in the MAC this decade, but had yet to win the MAC Championship before this season. They erased all that heartache in a big way, hammering Akron in the MAC Championship Game 45-28 and claiming their first MAC tile in 13 years. Now, they will look to notch a 12-win season, when they take on the Appalachian State Mountaineers, a team they are familiar with from a bowl game in the Yellowhammer State last year.
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College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Appalachian State +7.5
Toledo -7.5
Over/Under 63
Odds Analysis
Appalachian State was hailed by many as the preseason favorites to win the Sun Belt, but had a somewhat disappointing year despite tying for the conference title. The Mountaineers stumbled through the first three-quarters of the season, going just 5-4 SU and 2-7 ATS. In that time, they suffered outright losses to UMass and Louisiana-Monroe and did not look like the team we thought they would be. The Mountaineers did rally with three straight big wins to end the season that all covered the spread, but this was very much a season of what could have been with such a soft schedule.
Jason Candle seems to be the next in a long line of college coaches who got their first gigs at Toledo. The Rockets went 11-2 under Candle this season with the two losses coming to Miami and Ohio. Aside from that they were flawless, but they did have some trouble covering the larger spreads they faced. They went 7-6 ATS on the season.
Last Meeting
Amazingly enough, these two teams faced off in Camellia Bowl last season. In that game, Appalachian State squeaked out a 31-28 win and dominated time of possession thanks to an effective ground attack.
The Mountaineers ran 82 plays in that game and finished the game with 11 more first downs than the Rockets. They ran for almost 300 yards on Toledo’s defense and averaged a little over six yards per carry in the victory.
Unfortunately for Toledo, the Rockets wasted a solid effort from Kansas City Chiefs rookie Kareem Hunt. Hunt had 24 touches for 146 yards and two scores in the game and was able to make plays against a stiff Mountaineers defense.
Matchup to Watch
These teams play two very different styles offensively. Toledo likes to air the ball out with quarterback Logan Woodside. Woodside didn’t put up the gaudy touchdown numbers he did last season, but still will likely finish the year with more than 4,000 passing yards. He has had a lot of success against even the best defenses on the Rockets schedule and even torched Miami’s secondary.
Appalachian State’s Taylor Lamb isn’t nearly the passer Woodside is. He completed less than 50 percent of his passes in last year’s bowl game and threw for just 119 yards. However, what makes Lamb special is his ability to run the ball and he gets that chance often in Scott Satterfield’s system. He ran for 126 yards and a score last year against Toledo and is averaging 7.7 yards per carry this season. Additionally, he has become a better passer, so Toledo will have to watch out for that.
Free ATS Pick
As much as I like Candle, I can’t justify laying over a touchdown with Toledo in this one. Appalachian State knocked off Toledo last season and the Rockets no longer have their best player from 2016. The Mountaineers should be able to do what they did last year against this defense and slowly move the chains and grind clock. Look for them to pull off the outright upset here.
College Football Odds: Appalachian State 30, Toledo 24
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