UCF rolled to victory in this matchup last year and has proven to be the superior program between these Florida neighbors. The Knights are heavy favorites and seem likely to win this one, although a big spread means if FIU plays well it should cover.
Much will depend on the Florida International passing game, which needs to get going in order to keep Central Florida from stacking the box. FIU has a talented running back in Alex Gardner, who had 930 rushing yards and six touchdowns a season ago, but he may not have a bunch of running room if the Knights can live with just one safety back deep.
This contest in Week 1 of the regular season will go down Thursday, August 31, 2017, at 6 p.m. ET at Bright House Networks Stadium.
NFL Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Florida International +16.5
Central Florida -16.5
Over/Under 56.5
Odds Analysis
The Knights are heavy favorites to take care of business. Despite the high spread, nearly 65 percent of the early money is coming in on Central Florida to cover. The “over” is currently the more common choice on the total.
FIU is +639 on the moneyline while Central Florida is -950. More money is currently on the underdog, which is usually the case when the odds are so tilted. The Panthers would pay off handsomely if they can find a way to pull off the upset over the Knights.
Player to Watch
Tre’Quan Smith -- The Central Florida junior wideout has been impressive since the moment he stepped on the field. Smith had 52 catches for 724 yards and four touchdowns as a freshman, averaging 13.9 yards per grab.
He improved on those statistics as a sophomore in 2016, finishing with 57 catches for 853 yards and five touchdowns. Smith is 6-foot-1 and 205 pounds and is able to use both his size and elusiveness to get away from defensive backs.
Florida International was blown out by Central Florida last season but did hold Smith in check, as he had only two catches for 28 yards. That seems unlikely to happen again. He should get targeted often and it would not be a surprise to see him reach the end zone in this one.
Coaching Angle
Davis is taking over the FIU program after a couple years in the NFL. He left a role as a North Carolina assistant a few years back after a series of NCAA investigations but is back in the college ranks. Florida International only won four games a season ago and it could take some time to get enough talent flowing through campus to get back to a bowl game, but Davis hopes his in-game acumen will keep the team closer this time around against UCF.
Scott Frost leads Central Florida and is seen as one of the hot up-and-coming coaches in college football. He led the team to six wins a season ago after it went winless in 2015, and more improvement could have him on the short list for a big-time job soon. The former Oregon offensive coordinator isn’t worrying about that quite yet, as he is focused on delivering FIU another loss.
Free ATS Pick
Central Florida is the more talented team and is playing at home. This won’t be quite as bad as last year’s 53-14 drubbing, but it could be close. This spread is too low as the Knights seem to have the superior players at most positions.
Florida International’s offense is going to be an issue in this one, and falling behind early will lead to turnovers late, which will inflate Central Florida’s point total in the second half.
College Football Odds: Central Florida 41, Florida International 20
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