.jpg "College Football ATS Picks – Fresno State at Alabama")
Chalk up another big win for the juggernaut known as the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama was dominant on defense against Florida State in one of the most highly anticipated early season games in recent memory. The Crimson Tide flew around the field and left head coach Jimbo Fisher scratching his head on more than one occasion. Now, Alabama gets a much easier FSU this weekend when the Fresno State Bulldogs come to Alabama.
This matchup in Week 2 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, September 9, 2017,
at 3:30 p.m. ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Fresno State +43.5
Alabama -43.5
Over/Under 54
Odds Analysis
Fresno State had one of its easier matchups in Week 1 of the college football season and took full advantage of its inexperienced opponent. The Bulldogs faced Incarnate Word and crushed the relative FCS newcomers 66-0. Chase Virgil was relatively good at quarterback and Fresno State did plenty on the ground against the Southland Conference lightweights.
It’s rinse, wash, repeat for Alabama. Once again, they started the season with a highly ranked foe and once again, they unceremoniously dumped them. Florida State gave them a better game than most, but at the end of the day Alabama got the cover on the back of its defense and special teams.
Coaching Angle
There may be chinks in the armor for Alabama. The Crimson Tide had their worst offensive performance since 2014 against the Seminoles in their season opener, managing just 4.5 yards per play.
It was the debut performance of new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, whose offense lacked the imagination that it had under Lane Kiffin last season. Daboll was an odd hire in the first place. He has never been a coach at the collegiate level and spent his last 17 years as an NFL assistant. During that time, he was an offensive coordinator for three different teams and none of those teams were particularly great on offense.
Daboll spent his last three seasons as a tight ends coach in New England before Nick Saban brought him to Tuscaloosa. He was a last-minute hire after Steve Sarkisian bolted for the NFL and his initial work is something to keep an eye on. Alabama wasn’t able to run the ball effectively against Florida State and finished with less than 100 yards through the air too.
Matchup to Watch
Fresno State already has as many wins as it did all of last season in its first year under Jeff Tedford. Of particular importance is how good the offense looked in his first game. Tim DeRuyter’s last three seasons saw the offensive numbers plummet for the Bulldogs, with the team hitting rock bottom in 2016 averaging 17.7 PPG.
The 66 points against Incarnate Word were the most points the Bulldogs have scored since 2013. Sure, it was an FCS opponent, but the Bulldogs scored just 31 against Sacramento State in 2016 and 34 against Abilene Christian in 2015.
This offense can put up some points against Alabama. There are 10 returning starters and these are the types of offenses that the Crimson Tide have the most problems with.
Free ATS Pick
Alabama is going to hammer Fresno State, there’s no doubt about that. However, 43.5 points is too much to cover. The Crimson Tide are content with just winning games and don’t care about making statements They have scored under 40 points in four of their last six games against non-power conference opponents and the Bulldogs will get into double digits on this defense.
This is a great bet at these odds. Tedford is smart enough to know his team doesn’t have a shot and will be content to just escape injury. He’ll keep the clock moving with his playcalling and get the cover.
College Football Odds: Crimson Tide 38, Bulldogs 13
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