The San Diego State Aztecs got their lunch served to them by the Boise State Broncos at home last week. Their reward for laying such a huge egg is a battle with the Fresno State Bulldogs who currently sit atop the West Division of the Mountain West Conference standings. These teams stack up incredibly similarly against one another, so this late night degenerate special should deliver for college football fans either chasing or looking to add onto their wins late into the night.
This matchup in Week 8 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 21, 2017, at 10:30 p.m. ET at SDCCU Stadium. This game will be broadcast live on CBSSN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Bulldogs +11.5
Aztecs -11.5
O/U 47.5
Odds Analysis
Linemakers look to have put out a bad number for this matchup evidenced by 65 percent of the betting handle flocking to the visiting Bulldogs. In doing so, the betting line has plummeted all the way down to -7.5 after the Aztecs originally opened as decided 11.5-point favorites. An interesting move when you take into account San Diego State’s 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread all-time records when hosting this rivalry. Still, Fresno State has taken on a tough schedule that should have them prepared to deal with what awaits on Saturday night.
The Bulldogs have given up a grand total of 31 points through three MWC games. SDST has given up an average of just 21.0 points per game to date. With that, it’s unsurprising to see the total drop a half point to 47 with points likely to be tough to come by. That said, an influx of over money could trickle in late with degens looking to chase. Wait closer to kick-off before hitting the under if indeed interested in taking on that position.
Player to Watch
Rashaad Penny – The senior tailback was nowhere to be seen last week. Actually, that’s an unfair statement to make. He ended up rushing for 53 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries, but the overall effort was far from what San Diego State backers have come to expect. For the year, he’s racked up 1,046 yards and 12 overall touchdowns to become a dark horse Heisman contender. He can’t go under radio silence in this one for the Aztecs to have a shot of covering let alone winning the game. It won’t be easy however with Fresno State ranked No. 14 defending the run in allowing 107.5 yards per game at only 4.2 yards per carry ( No. 56 ). His ability to keep the chains moving for the home team will go a long way in deciding this matchup’s final outcome.
Key Stat
27.1 – For the season, Fresno State owns a decent 14.7 defensive yard per point average which amounts to the No. 62 ranking in the country. But since Mountain West action began, Jeff Tedford’s kids have really amped their play up on that side of the ball. In holding Nevada to 21 points, San Jose State to 10 points, and shutting New Mexico out last week, the Bulldogs defensive yard per point average over the last three weeks checks in at a dominant 27.1. Only two other defenses have been better during that stretch! Keeping San Diego State one-dimensional and playing to the defense’s strength will give the visitors a leg up in scoring its second win at Qualcomm Stadium in its last three visits dating back to 2013.
Free ATS Pick
These clubs have partaken in a pair of closely contested defensive battles each of the last three seasons. I’m expecting that to once again be the case on Saturday night as well. Though San Diego State will take the field determined to wash the bad taste of last week’s loss to Boise State out of their mouths, the Bulldogs aren’t going to make it easy on them. Fresno State has covered all three of its games when installed underdogs to date, and two of those contests occurred at Alabama and Washington; two teams that could possibly be playing in the College Football Playoff. Though we won’t be getting the best of the number, I still expect Fresno State to give San Diego State everything it could ask for and more in likely another low scoring contest.
College Football Odds: Aztecs 23, Bulldogs 22
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