The Georgia Bulldogs are back. This looks like the team to beat in the SEC East in Kirby Smart’s second year on the job. Much like Nick Saban’s first year at Alabama, Smart’s first season in Athens was full of stumbles. However, like Saban, Smart is now crushing every challenger his team faces with workmanlike efficiency and a suffocating defense. Next up on the chopping block this week are the Vanderbilt Commodores, who once had the best defense in college football through the first three weeks of the season.
This contest in Week 6 of the regular season will go down Saturday, October 7, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at Vanderbilt Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Georgia -17.5
Vanderbilt +17.5
Over/Under 42.5
Odds Analysis
Vanderbilt has seen the total get increasingly lower in its games all season long. The Commodores’ first three games all went under the total by a considerable amount, so Vegas responded by dropping totals in Vandy games to the low 40s. That has led the last two games to fly over the total. The Commodores are 2-3 ATS this season and suffered an all-time beatdown at the hands of Alabama two weeks ago, picking up just three first downs in a 59-0 loss.
The Bulldogs have been one of the best teams against the number in the country this season. They are 4-0 ATS against FBS opponents and have been criminally undervalued this season. Georgia was a laughable underdog at Notre Dame and was just a 2.5-point favorite against Mississippi State. Oddsmakers opened the Bulldogs as a just a touchdown favorite against Tennessee last week and the public made them pay by moving the line to 10. Georgia covered with ease in a 41-0 rout. The under is 5-0 in Georgia games on the year.
Matchup to Watch
These are two of the best defenses in the country, but there is no question whose is better.
Georgia’s defense has been amazing this season. The Bulldogs are allowing just 9.2 PPG on the year and are third in the country in total defense. They are allowing just 3.8 yards per play and 244 yards per game this year.
If you want a hilarious fact that illustrates how dominant this defense has been, Georgia has given up just four offensive touchdowns this season and two of those were scored by FCS side Samford.
The Commodores defense has been battered over the last two weeks. Vandy had given up just 13 points in its first three games, but then allowed a combined 87 points to Alabama and Florida. Both teams were able to churn out enough yards on the ground against Vandy to control the clock and that led to tired legs from this defense in the end. Georgia will attempt to stick to that trend on Saturday.
Key Stat
Although Georgia is technically one of the worst passing teams in the country, ranking 119th in the nation in terms of passing yards per game, that’s by design. Like his mentor Saban, Smart wants to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible and doesn’t want his quarterbacks to throw it around the field.
Yet he does have a solid quarterback in Jake Fromm. Fromm was one of the nation’s top passers as a high school senior and the true freshman has been great since replacing the injured Jacob Eason. He is averaging 8.7 yards per pass and has four times as many touchdowns as interceptions.
Free ATS Pick
Georgia gets a relative breather after this game, a home game against Missouri. After that, the Bulldogs have a bye before their annual showdown against Florida and will look to finally reestablish supremacy over the Gators. This is a driven team and they won’t dilly dally against Vanderbilt. Look for Georgia to roll.
College Football Odds: Georgia 31, Vanderbilt 7
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