It’s been a great turnaround season for Jeff Tedford and the Fresno State Bulldogs. The Bulldogs were a train wreck last season and failed to win a game against an FBS opponent. That led to Tim DeRuyter getting replaced by Tedford and he has instantly brought respectability back to the program. In his first season on the job, the Bulldogs usurped San Diego State to win the MWC’s West Division and although they lost to Boise State in the MWC Championship Game, it was still a very nice year. They will look to get one more win when they take on the Houston Cougars on Christmas Eve.
Watch the Hawaii Bowl live on Sunday, December 24, 2017, at 8:30 p.m. ET at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Fresno State +2.5
Houston -2.5
Over/Under 49
Odds Analysis
Surprisingly, the Cougars were one of the best under teams in the nation this year. The under went 10-2 in Houston games, but this defense was more fortunate than good. While they were in the top 40 in scoring defense, allowing just 23 PPG, the Cougars allowed over 400 yards a game and finished outside of the top 80 in total defense. There usually isn’t that big of a disparity in those numbers.
Fresno State was one of the best teams to bet on all season long. The Bulldogs went 10-2-1 ATS on the year and only lost to one team they should have beat, UNLV as a 22-point home favorite. Under was a great bet in Fresno State games this season too. Each of its last nine games went under the total.
Coaching Angle
Major Applewhite stepped into a pretty unenviable situation when he took over the head coaching job at Houston. Tom Herman had proven to be an elite coach and had sent the Cougars into the stratosphere with wins over Louisville, Oklahoma, and Florida State during his two years on campus.
Applewhite took over the head gig prior to the bowl game last season and he immediately had fans expecting more of the same. An early season loss to Texas Tech as a 10-point favorite dispelled those notions and there was actually talk of him being fired following the team blowing a second half lead against Memphis.
Those murmurs went away after the Cougars went into Tampa and knocked off a previously undefeated South Florida team in the one game where Houston was an underdog all season long. Still, losing four games outright as a betting favorite, three of which where they were favored by a touchdown or more, left many affiliated with the program grumbling. A win here would help smooth things over heading into the offseason.
Key Stats
The key to Fresno State’s turnaround was its defense. The Bulldogs were great at suppressing big plays, ranking second in the country in that metric according to Bill Connelly, and ranked in the top ten in the nation in scoring defense.
It’s hard not to consider Orlondo Steinauer responsible for a lot of that success. Jeff Tedford pulled Steinauer out of Canada, where he was serving as the defensive coordinator of the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, and the defense got a lot better. In 2016, the Bulldogs allowed 30.9 PPG, but they allowed just 17.2 PPG this season and got better in every phase of the game.
The most impressive aspect was how well this team improved in its ability to stop the run. Fresno State gave up 247.4 YPG on the ground last season and allowed just 116.6 YPG this year.
Free ATS Pick
This seems like a tale of two programs heading in opposite directions. Oddsmakers have loved Houston this season, and Herman left the cupboard stocked with a lot of talent, but the Cougars have not really played up to their potential. Meanwhile, Fresno State has done that and then some. Motivation is key in these games and I expect the Bulldogs to be much more motivated and get the victory as a result.
College Football Odds: Fresno State 30, Houston 24
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