If you can’t get into one of the New Year’s Six bowls, the best place to go for the holidays is the eponymous Holiday Bowl. The Michigan State Spartans are glad to be back in a good bowl game after a disastrous 2016 campaign. Sparty went 3-9 last year and was looking for redemption this season. They found it by going 9-3 and knocking off in-state rival Michigan once again.
The Washington State Cougars missed out on a PAC-12 North title by losing to Washington in the Apple Cup, but it’s hard to be upset with their season. They knocked off USC, Stanford, and Boise State and finished at 9-3 as well.
Watch the Holiday Bowl live on Thursday, December 28, 2017, at 9 p.m. ET at San Diego Country Credit Union Stadium in San Diego, California. This game will be broadcast on FS1.
College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michigan State +2.5
Washington State -2.5
Over/Under 45.5
Odds Analysis
Washington State did not fare well outside of Pullman this season. The Cougars were blown out by California, Arizona, and Washington on the road, losing to all three teams by a combined 82 points. Amazingly, the defense was even better than the offense this season and was the reason for the team’s success. That led to the under posting a 7-5 record in Washington State games.
Michigan State has pulled off some big wins this year. The Spartans knocked off Michigan and Penn State and could have won the Big Ten East if they had been able to knock off Ohio State. This team has never been known for its offense and all but one of their last nine games had a total in the 40s. The under cashed five times during that stretch.
Player to Watch
Luke Falk is going to finish his career as one of the leading passers in NCAA history. Falk has thrown for over 14,000 yards at Washington State and now has many of the program’s passing records.
However, this season he has not been his best by a long shot. For the first time in his career, he is averaging under seven yards per pass attempt. Additionally, Falk has thrown more interceptions this year than in any other season in his career. He has thrown 13 interceptions this year and has tossed six of those over his last three games.
The Cougars have a better running game than they have had in years past, but it’s not enough to carry the team if Falk is struggling.
Key Stat
Michigan State does not have a good offense and relies on its defense to win games. The Spartans are holding opponents to under 300 yards per game and have one of the stingiest run defenses in the nation.
The Spartans haven’t been that bad stopping the pass either. Michigan State is allowing just 6.3 yards per pass this season and only Northwestern’s Clayton Thorson had real success against them.
This defense has gotten very good at taking away the underneath passing game. Washington State will have a hard time throwing on this team.
Free ATS Pick
The Cougars offense has not really got on track in either of their last two bowl games. They combined to score just 32 points in each of the past two years and weren’t playing defenses as good as Michigan State’s in either one of those games.
Michigan State is known as a program that continually punches above its weight. The Spartans have won four of their last five bowl games and don’t be surprised if they close as the favorite here. Motivation is something you never have to worry about with this team.
I think Michigan State will be able to effectively stop Washington State’s passing game and pull off the upset.
College Football Odds: Michigan State 23, Washington State 20
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