College Football ATS Picks - Illinois at South Florida Game Preview

It seems unlikely that the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the South Florida Bulls will be played in Tampa, if it’s played at all. Hurricane Irma is currently ravaging the entire state of Florida and Tampa has been one of the hardest hit cities. With expected road closures and power outages for the next week, don’t be surprised to see the venue of this game shift. Illinois has offered to host and these two teams might just end up playing in Champaign when it’s all said and done.

This matchup in Week 3 of the regular season will take place on Friday, September 15, 2017,

at 7 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.

College Football Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu

Illinois +17
South Florida -17

Odds Analysis

South Florida didn’t play last week either because of Hurricane Irma. The Bulls were slotted to play UConn and although the game was originally moved up, the decision came to just cancel it later in the week.

The Bulls are still undefeated and ranked, but maybe not for long. They have not looked impressive in their first two games and didn’t cover in either of their first two games. USF really struggled when trying to pull away from FCS Stony Brook two weeks ago and was tied with the school entering the fourth quarter. The Bulls know they must play better.

Illinois is off to a better start in the second year of the Lovie Smith than it had in the first. The Fighting Illini squeaked by Ball State by three in the opener and then shut down Western Kentucky’s vaunted attack in its second game. The Fighting Illini were five-point home underdogs in the game and backers got a pretty penny after their 20-7 win.

Player to Watch

Quinton Flowers has not had near the success he did under Willie Taggart through two games. Flowers has been somewhat constrained by Charlie Strong’s offense and the Bulls have not been as electric on offense as they were over the last two seasons.

He has only completed 54.5 percent of his passes and while he does have a four to one touchdown to interception ratio, he is averaging just 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Those numbers pale in comparison to what he did the last two years and he hasn’t had the same numbers with his legs either.

Flowers has run for 137 yards this season, but it has taken him 36 carries to get there. He is running the ball way too much considering how this offense should work and taking unnecessary hits too. This has to change soon or else Strong will once again be considered a major disappointment at a place where he can succeed.

Key Stats

Illinois has gotten it done with a stingy defense through the opening two games. This offense has not been able to move the ball very successfully, but the defense has hung tough in grinding out wins. The Illini defense held Western Kentucky to just six rushing yards last week and forced turnovers at just the right time against Ball State.

Neither Ball State nor Western Kentucky has a great defense though, so it’s concerning that Illinois couldn’t crack 20 first downs against either team. South Florida has a better defense than either of those teams so this will be the toughest test yet for the Illini offense.

Free ATS Pick

Keep in mind that any bet that you place will be voided in the event of a venue change. No matter where these two teams play though, under should be a good bet. Illinois will contain Flowers relatively well, but won’t be able to move the ball on offense with any sort of regularity. As long as the total is in the mid-50s, take the under.

College Football Odds: Bet the under

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