Iowa is a small underdog in this one and hopes to continue a strong start to the season with a victory. The Spartans had a couple of early-season wins over small-conference foes but didn’t look good in their first real test last time out, losing by 20 points to Notre Dame.
Michigan State is coming off a poor 2016 season, and this is a big game for them to win if the Spartans plan on making some noise in the Big Ten this year. Michigan State was awful in conference a year ago.
Watch this regular season Week 5 matchup live on Saturday, September 30, 2017, at 4 p.m. ET at Spartan Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Iowa +3.5
Michigan State -3.5
Over/Under 45
Odds Analysis
The Spartans are slight favorites, but the bettors certainly feel like the line is too high, as Iowa is getting more than 65 percent of the action. The scoring total is low for a college football game but not a huge surprise in the defense-oriented Big Ten. The “under” is the more popular choice, with 62 percent of the money heading that way.
Iowa is +150 on the moneyline to pull the upset, while Michigan State is listed as the -170 favorite.
Last Time Out
Both Iowa and Michigan State are coming off losses, although the Hawkeyes have to feel better about their performance. Iowa scored 12 unanswered points to take the lead in the fourth quarter against No. 4 Penn State but lost when Juwan Jordan caught a seven-yard touchdown pass as time expired for a 21-19 Nittany Lions win.
In the end, Iowa couldn’t contain Penn State running back Saquon Barkley, who had 211 rushing yards and 94 receiving yards.
Michigan State doesn’t have a player of that caliber. The Spartans did move the ball to a tune of nearly 500 total yards against Notre Dame last time out, but three turnovers helped end their chances at a victory over the Irish.
The Spartans have some good statistical numbers but must prove they can keep it up against a higher level of competition.
Player to Watch
Brian Lewerke -- The Michigan State quarterback will play a big role in the outcome of this contest. He has thrown for 751 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions this season and has also been a threat on the ground, adding 206 rushing yards and two scores.
Lewerke’s dual threat ability is something Iowa must watch closely, especially in a game where points are going to be tough to come by at times. Lewerke threw for a career-high 340 yards last time out but it took him 50 pass attempts, and the Spartans would prefer to be more balanced and run the ball in this contest.
Free ATS Pick
Frankly, Michigan State has not played well enough over the past year-plus to garner this type of spread. The fact that Iowa can lose by a field goal and still cover makes the Hawkeyes the easy choice. Furthermore, they could very well pull the upset entirely.
Iowa is a solid team and has shown that in the first four games of the season. Michigan State has been the stronger program in recent years, but this spread is giving the Spartans too much credit. The Fighting Irish poked holes in Michigan State’s fast start, and the Hawkeyes are going to continue to that trend.
Choose Iowa to pull off this road upset in addition to covering the spread.
College Football Odds: Iowa 27, Michigan State 24
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